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This week, the seamless steel pipe market faced continued pressure as production slightly increased and factory inventories reached new highs. For international buyers, the combination of a traditional seasonal off-season, high temperatures, and rainy weather suggests that the market will remain soft in the short term. This environment creates a strategic window for cost-conscious procurement if you align your sourcing with these domestic market shifts.
Price Trends and Cost Dynamics：According to Mysteel’s data, as of July 17, the national average price for 108*4.5mm seamless pipes settled at 4,288 RMB/ton, a slight week-on-week decrease of 8 RMB/ton. The upstream raw material market saw pipe billet prices hold steady or decline slightly, with Shandong billet prices remaining flat and Jiangsu billet prices falling by 10 RMB/ton. Reflecting these cost trends, mainstream seamless pipe mills adjusted their factory-gate prices downward by 20–70 RMB/ton.
Profitability and Regional Analysis：Profit margins for re-rolling seamless pipe mills showed differentiation, with Shandong-based mills achieving 50 RMB/ton (up 10 RMB/ton week-on-week) and Jiangsu mills reporting 130 RMB/ton (up 30 RMB/ton week-on-week). In East China, market prices remained weak and stable, with Hangzhou experiencing a 30 RMB/ton decline, while Shanghai and Nanjing prices remained unchanged. Downstream demand continues to be hampered by high temperatures and the traditional off-season, leading to limited purchasing activity.
Inventory and Production Status：National social inventory among 123 sampled traders was 711,000 tons, a minor decrease of 2,900 tons, as traders maintain a cautious "just-in-time" approach due to poor turnover. Conversely, factory-side inventories at 30 sampled enterprises rose to 862,400 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons week-on-week, highlighting significant pressure on mills to reduce stock. Production capacity utilization stood at 79.34%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.28%.
Market Forecast for International Buyers：The market is currently struggling with a supply-demand imbalance: production has slightly increased, and inventories have hit a new high, while downstream demand remains weak due to the summer off-season and construction restrictions. Given these factors, we expect seamless pipe prices to continue with narrow adjustments in the coming week. For our global partners, this suggests a period where maintaining inventory flexibility and monitoring price dips will be key to optimizing your H2 procurement strategy.
The market for the period of July 10 – July 17 reflects a classic seasonal adjustment. By leveraging these current price trends and our stable supply chain, you can ensure your project’s material requirements are met with precision and value.
