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Overview: Seamless pipe prices weakened further this week with expanded declines. Mainstream mills cut prices to reduce inventory pressure, while traders discounted to boost sales. Mill inventories rose, increasing production pressure, while trader inventories continued declining amid low restocking. Although raw materials rebounded today, supporting steel prices, insufficient demand momentum maintains narrow fluctuations. Seasonal weakness deepens price pressure.
Seamless Pipes: National average (108×4.5mm): 4,246 yuan/ton as of June 27 WoW change: ↓ 25 yuan/ton (Broad-based declines)
Raw Materials (Billet): Shandong billet: ↓ 40 yuan/ton WoW Jiangsu billet: ↓ 10 yuan/ton WoW
Mill Price Adjustments: 34 sampled mills cut ex-factory prices by 30-50 yuan/ton.
Billet-Processing Mills: Average profit: -50 yuan/ton (↑ 20 yuan/ton WoW; ↓ 30 yuan/ton MoM)
Blast Furnace Mills: Average profit: 238 yuan/ton (↑ 13 yuan/ton WoW; ↑ 8 yuan/ton MoM)
Market Prices: Shanghai/Nanjing/Hangzhou: ↓ 20 yuan/ton to 4,220/4,130/4,220 yuan/ton
Market Drivers: Slow price adjustments lagged behind falling billet costs amid weak transactions.
Inventory: Social stocks ↑ 1,400 tons WoW (Accumulation resumes).
Outlook: Weak operation with stabilization tendencies expected.
Social Inventory (123 traders): 688,900 tons (↓ 4,600 tons WoW)
Mill Inventory (33 producers): 722,600 tons (↑ 8,300 tons WoW; ↑ 65,500 tons vs May)
Raw Material Inventory (Mills): 285,500 tons (↓ 2,500 tons WoW; ↓ 20,200 tons vs May)
Production: 372,900 tons (↓ 1,900 tons WoW)
Capacity Utilization: 81.03% (↓ 0.41% WoW)
Operating Rate: 59.09% (Unchanged WoW)
Price Drivers: Continued billet declines and mill discounts sustain weak pricing.
Fundamentals: Trader destocking contrasts with rising mill inventories. Seasonal demand remains weak.
Market Sentiment: Month-end focus on sales dominates trader priorities.
Forecast Conclusion: Nationwide seamless pipe prices expected to maintain weak operation.
