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This week, the black series futures market maintained an upward trajectory, significantly pulling up the price of raw material tube blanks. In response, seamless pipe spot prices have begun to follow suit with modest increases. While production decreased slightly due to the "May Day" holiday, a concentrated release of downstream orders post-holiday has improved short-term turnover. Currently, the market maintains a "tight balance" between supply and demand. With the cost of raw materials providing firm support, international buyers should anticipate that seamless pipe prices will remain resilient and trend toward further appreciation in the coming week.
Price and Raw Materials: As of May 8, the average price for 108*4.5mm seamless pipes across 28 major cities reached 4284 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 18 RMB/ton. Raw material costs are the primary driver: tube blank prices in Shandong rose by 60 RMB/ton, and in Jiangsu by 50 RMB/ton. The narrowing North-South price gap to 130 RMB/ton indicates a nationwide synchronization of rising costs.
Profitability Analysis: Mill profits are seeing a divergent recovery. Shandong-based mills reported a profit of 40 RMB/ton (down 20 RMB/ton), while Jiangsu mills improved to 150 RMB/ton. Despite the squeeze in some regions, the strong intent of mills to maintain high offer prices remains a critical factor for global procurement planning.
Regional Focus (East China): In major hubs like Shanghai and Nanjing, prices rose by 30-50 RMB/ton. While terminal construction sites remain cautious with their purchasing, the active inquiry atmosphere suggests that the market is preparing for a stronger mid-May.
Inventory Shifts: Social inventory reached 70.45 million tons, a slight increase of 0.12 million tons as logistics returned to normal post-holiday. Mill inventories stand at 76.47 million tons. This modest build-up is viewed as a necessary buffer to meet the expected release of delayed project demands.
Production and Output: Weekly production fell to 40.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.04 million tons. Capacity utilization dropped to 82.02%, and the operating rate fell to 77.23%. This contraction in supply, coupled with higher raw material costs and reduced "blank" stockpiling by mills, creates a structural support for higher prices.
Market Prediction: As we look toward the next week, the supply-demand balance remains tight. While the long-term demand may face a "ceiling," the immediate firming of tube blank costs and the reduction in production during the holiday suggest that domestic prices will continue to oscillate upward .
The combination of a post-holiday order surge and a significant jump in raw material costs has shifted the seamless pipe market into a higher gear. For the international market, this means the window for lower-priced procurement is closing. Buyers are encouraged to monitor the rising cost of tube blanks closely, as any further appreciation in raw materials will likely trigger a secondary wave of price hikes in finished pipes. The current tight balance ensures that any downside risk is well-cushioned by manufacturing costs.
