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Title: Mysteel: Regional Profit Divergence in Seamless Pipes — Structure Determines Success

Title: Mysteel: Regional Profit Divergence in Seamless Pipes — Structure Determines Success

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    Overview

    In recent years, the Chinese seamless pipe industry has faced overall profit pressure, with regional divergence becoming increasingly prominent. Between 2021 and 2025, re-rolling mills (enterprises that purchase billets to produce pipes) in the major production hubs of Shandong and Jiangsu have faced the same market conditions but achieved vastly different results—a phenomenon of "same market, different profits." This report contrasts the profit trends of these two regions to analyze the structural reasons behind the gap and compares them with the resilience of integrated Blast Furnace (BF) enterprises.

    Industry Profit Trends: General Decline with Sharp Regional Split

    From 2021 to 2025, profits in the Chinese seamless pipe industry have generally followed a volatile downward trajectory, a trend most evident among re-rolling enterprises. Despite operating under similar raw material and market environments, the profit performance of Shandong and Jiangsu has diverged significantly. This reflects the different paths these regions have taken regarding product structure, cost control, and market competition strategies.

    Profit Comparison: Shandong vs. Jiangsu Re-rolling Mills

    • Shandong Region: In 2025, the average theoretical profit fell to -37 yuan/ton, the lowest level in five years. Profits have been shrinking since 2023, dropping from 15 yuan/ton in 2024 into a deficit in 2025.

    • Jiangsu Region: In 2025, the average profit stood at 222 yuan/ton. Although this is a decline from the 2022 peak, the region maintains a healthy profitability level, significantly outperforming Shandong.

    Monthly Volatility: This divergence is also visible in short-term fluctuations. In 2025, Shandong’s profit lows were concentrated in June, while Jiangsu's market generally moved sideways (except for a significant correction in May).

    Structural Drivers Behind the Profit Divergence

    Product Structure & Added Value:Jiangsu enterprises focus on high-value-added products such as precision pipes, alloy pipes, and high-end specialized pipes. These segments benefit from stable demand and strong price resilience. In contrast, Shandong remains dominated by ordinary seamless pipes, characterized by severe product homogenization and fierce price competition.

    Cost Control & Operational Efficiency:Jiangsu mills possess advantages in production processes, equipment upgrades, and raw material procurement timing. Fine-tuned operations help them mitigate the impact of raw material price shocks. Shandong enterprises, often hampered by aging equipment and rigid procurement strategies, show a weaker ability to transmit costs.

    Raw Material Price Transmission:Re-rolling mills are directly exposed to pipe billet price fluctuations, which are tied to iron ore and scrap steel. In 2025, intensified raw material volatility placed continuous pressure on re-rolling mills that lack self-sufficiency in raw materials.

    Integrated Resilience: Blast Furnace (BF) Enterprises

    Compared to re-rolling mills, integrated seamless pipe enterprises (those with Blast Furnace processes) showed stronger resilience in 2025.

    • Performance: Although their average profit dropped to approximately 130 yuan/ton (down 84 yuan/ton year-on-year), they remained profitable.

    • Advantage: This is largely due to the benefits of vertical integration, economies of scale, and flexible product combinations, which offer significantly higher risk resistance.

    Competition Outlook & Future Trends

    The seamless pipe industry has entered a phase of structural differentiation and survival of the fittest. Success now depends on:

    • Product upgrading and the ability to compete through differentiation.

    • Cost control and supply chain synergy.

    • Operational resilience against raw material price volatility.

    Conclusion: Industry consolidation is expected to accelerate. Enterprises lacking cost or technical advantages will face mounting pressure, while those capable of optimizing structures and improving efficiency will consolidate their positions and achieve sustainable profitability.


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