Mysteel Monthly Report: China’s Seamless Pipe Prices May Edge Lower in May

As April’s tepid demand and rising factory inventories weigh on the market, China’s seamless pipe sector braces for a challenging May. Despite marginal profit improvements and resilient exports, weak domestic consumption and cost pressures signal further price declines. Here’s a data-driven breakdown of April’s trends and what lies ahead.

I. Price & Profit Trends: Stability Elusive

1. April Price Decline:

• The national average seamless pipe price fell to 4,332 RMB/ton (-55 RMB/ton MoM, -1.25%).

• Prices drifted lower throughout the month due to weak downstream demand and aggressive seller discounts.

2. Mill Profitability:

• Shandong mills saw profits rise to 10 RMB/ton (+20 RMB/ton MoM), but margins remain razor-thin.

• Pipe billet prices dipped slightly to 3,310 RMB/ton (-0.3% MoM), offering limited cost relief.

II. Supply: Output Drops as Inventories Swell

1. Production Cuts:

• April output fell to 359,600 tons/week (-6,900 tons MoM).

• Capacity utilization dropped to 78.14% (-1.5% MoM), with some mills halting production for maintenance.

2. Inventory Pressure:

• Factory stocks rose to 603,500 tons (+6,200 tons MoM) amid slower sales.

• Raw material inventories fell to 297,400 tons (-27,700 tons MoM), signaling cautious procurement.

III. Demand: Domestic Weakness vs. Export Resilience

1. Domestic Sales:

• April’s seamless pipe sales growth slowed to 2.63% YoY, with weekly volumes flat at ~15,750 tons.

• Buyers avoided bulk restocking due to funding constraints and muted project activity.

2. Exports Shine:

• Q1 2025 exports hit 1.415 million tons (+15% YoY), driven by competitive pricing.

• March exports surged to 549,100 tons (+44.54% MoM), reflecting strong overseas demand.

Ⅳ. May Outlook: Narrow Downtrend Expected

• Macro Factors: No major stimulus signals, with infrastructure funding delays and cautious market sentiment.

• Cost Pressures:Coking coal and coke inventories remain high, likely capping raw material price gains.

• Supply-Demand Mismatch:Mills may further cut output to manage inventories, but weak domestic demand offsets export gains.

Key Forecast:

• Prices to trend slightly lower in May, constrained by thin margins and sluggish consumption.

• Export growth may slow as global trade barriers (e.g., anti-dumping duties) intensify.

Conclusion: Seamless pipe prices may see narrow downward adjustments in May, constrained by weak margins, muted demand, and cost volatility.