Mysteel Weekly Report: Seamless Pipe Prices to Consolidate Amid Shifting Fundamentals (Feb 28-Mar 7, 2025)

Executive Summary

• Price Stability: National average holds at 4,430 RMB/ton (-3 RMB WoW)

• Critical Catalysts:

• 74.08% capacity utilization (+1.05pp WoW)

• US imposes 10% tariff on Chinese goods (Mar 3生效)

• ECB cuts rates by 25bps to 3.75%

• Market Alert: Mill inventories drop to 630,800 tons (-0.5% WoW) as circulation improves

I. Price & Cost Dynamics

Regional Price Movements

• Eastern China:

• Shanghai: 4,420 RMB (-30 WoW)

• Nanjing: 4,280 RMB (-50 WoW)

• Hangzhou: 4,380 RMB (-20 WoW)

• Raw Material Pressures:

• Shandong billet: 3,520 RMB (-20 WoW)

• Jiangsu billet: 4,110 RMB (-40 WoW)

• Regional spread narrows to 590 RMB

Profit Recovery

• Shandong Mills:

• Margins rebound to 0 RMB/ton (+30 WoW)

• Benefit from delayed cost pass-through

II. Supply Chain Rebalancing

Inventory Shifts

• Social Inventory: 716,500 tons (+0.27% WoW)

• Southern China: +1.2% (Rain-delayed projects)

• Eastern China: -0.8% (Targeted destocking)

• Production Insights:

• Weekly output reaches 340,900 tons (+1.0% WoW)

• Operating rate dips to 46.72% (-4.92pp WoW)

Policy Crosscurrents

• Trade Risks: US tariff escalation impacts 18% of export-oriented mills

• Monetary Support: PBOC's 777.9B RMB liquidity injection pending

• 

• 
  

III. Demand & Macro Drivers

Domestic Recovery

• Transaction Volume:

• 65% traders report "moderate" demand recovery

• Infrastructure projects resume at 70% pace vs 2024

• Weather Disruptions:

• Southern rainfall reduces 15% construction activity

Global Headwinds

• Currency Pressures:

• USDCNY hits 7.12 (+0.8% WoW)

• Eurozone rate cut spurs capital outflows

IV. Market Forecast & Strategies

Price Projections

• Base Case (60%): 4,400-4,450 RMB range consolidation

• Upside Risk (30%): Break above 4,480 on policy stimulus

• Downside Risk (10%): Test 4,380 support on tariff escalation

Operational Playbook

1. Inventory Strategy:

• Maintain 35-45 day coverage of high-turnover specs

• Accelerate specialty grade rotations (API/EN certified)

2. Pricing Tactics:

• Implement tiered pricing for volume buyers (5%+ discounts)

• Hedge 25% exposure via CNY/USD futures

3. Policy Positioning:

• Monitor Two Sessions steel VAT adjustments (Finalized Mar 10)

• Prepare anti-dumping documentation for US-bound shipments