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Summary: Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic seamless pipe market prices have followed a "rise first, then fall" trend, with the annual price center continuing to drift lower. The current average price is nearing the lowest level of the year, and even last year's low. Compared to previous years, the price volatility range has significantly narrowed, reflecting a "weak equilibrium" new normal in the market. Supply-demand contradictions have relatively eased, and market participants are adjusting inventory more rationally, leading to reduced speculative demand. While short-term upward price pressure remains, the market shows some positive signs. Following a review of the third quarter, we can make a simple forecast for the seamless pipe market after the National Day holiday.
As of September 25, the average price of 108*4.5mm seamless pipe in mainstream domestic markets (27 cities) was 4,297 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The current price is near last year's lowest point. Looking at the trend from 2023 to 2025, the price center for seamless pipes has generally been shifting downward year by year: it fluctuated between 4,700 and 5,300 yuan/ton in 2023, between 4,200 and 4,900 yuan/ton in 2024, and has fluctuated between 4,200 and 4,400 yuan/ton so far in 2025. The significantly reduced price range this year reflects several market characteristics:
The overall supply and demand situation is in a "weak equilibrium." Producers, distributors, and end-users have clearly enhanced their autonomy in inventory control, and end-user demand is relatively stable.
Market transparency has improved, leading to a convergence of price expectations. Unlike past market conditions, this year, views on seamless pipe prices are mostly consistent, resulting in less "speculative demand."
External factors have a diminished impact. This year, the disruptive effects of "tariff" policies or "reserve requirement ratio/interest rate cuts" on the seamless pipe market have clearly weakened. Simultaneously, the distinct characteristics of peak and off-peak demand seasons are less pronounced, with market players becoming more rational and focusing more on fundamental conditions.
Correspondingly, the recovery of end-user demand was slow at the beginning of the year, with a general decline from the first to the second quarter. Entering the third quarter, news of "anti-involution" in the manufacturing sector surfaced in July, restoring market sentiment, and prices rose from July to August. However, after the initial positive news was digested, peak season demand in September fell short of expectations, leading to price volatility and decline.
Before the National Day holiday, market feedback indicates no obvious pre-holiday restocking demand, and price fluctuations remain minor. The current market price is at a low point for the year.
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From the first to the third quarter, billet prices exhibited a volatile "three-phase" trend: prices fell in Q1 (January-March), then rose and fell (March-June), and finally rebounded and fell again (July-September). As of September 25:
The price for 20#, Φ50 hot-rolled billet in Shandong (Gangtou Special Steel) was 3,390 yuan/ton, a drop of 160 yuan/ton from 3,550 yuan/ton at the beginning of January.
The price for Φ40 hot-rolled billet in Jiangsu (Dongfang Special Steel) was 3,380 yuan/ton, a year-to-date drop of 290 yuan/ton.
As seamless pipe mills show limited enthusiasm for purchasing billet for rolling, competition between Northern and Southern billet resources has intensified, leading to a noticeable narrowing of the price difference between the two regions.
Since September, the daily output of pig iron from 247 domestic steel mills has continued to recover, increasing to 2.4102 million tons by September 19, indicating a low willingness for short-term production cuts by steel mills. The latest recorded cost of pig iron (excluding tax) for 114 mainstream steel mills (as of September 19) was 2,349 yuan/ton. The cost of pig iron for steel mills has been rising since the second quarter. From the raw materials perspective, despite the current moderate billet purchasing activity from pipe mills, the cost base for seamless pipes has strong support at the bottom.
Following the concentrated resumption of production after the Lunar New Year, domestic seamless pipe mill output continuously climbed in Q1, reaching its highest point for the year in mid-to-late April, then entered a volatile adjustment period after July. According to the latest data before the National Day holiday (September 24), the national seamless pipe output (30 producers, 101 production lines) was 385,700 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,500 tons. Mill inventory was 750,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 12,800 tons.
With maintenance plans scheduled for some pipe mills around the National Day holiday, it is expected that the output from mainstream sample pipe mills will experience a certain decline post-holiday, which should alleviate mill inventory pressure.
Domestic Market: Excluding January and May, the average daily transaction volume for domestic sample trading companies (123 total) has been higher than last year's level in all other months. The lower volume in January was mainly due to the early Lunar New Year holiday, and the dip in May was due to off-peak season demand. September, a traditional peak season, saw overall market transactions improve, with the average daily transaction volume up 8.75% year-on-year by the third week of September.
Foreign Market: In 2025, frequent international geopolitical conflicts have led to relatively robust overseas demand for oil country tubular goods. Concurrently, with the slow global economic recovery, international large-scale infrastructure projects still have some remaining demand. Overall, China's seamless pipe exports have been better than last year, with large steel mills seeing a concentrated explosion of export orders.
Combined with the overall increase in output from mainstream pipe mills this year, there is strong evidence to suggest that this year's seamless pipe demand is better than the same period last year, and rigid demand persists. The relatively weak demand perceived by market merchants may be partially influenced by an increase in direct shipment ratios from pipe mills and the weakened distinction between off-peak and peak demand characteristics.
Based on the overall situation of the domestic seamless pipe market before the holiday, the post-holiday supply and demand fundamentals are expected to exhibit the following characteristics:
Supply is expected to decrease from its high level after the holiday due to maintenance at some pipe mills.
Pig iron costs will remain high, forming a strong bottom support for billet prices, meaning the cost-side price risk is relatively controllable.
Demand will continue to recover after the holiday. With further recovery in both supply and demand, the fundamental balance is set to reach its next equilibrium point.
Therefore, the author believes that although there is some current pressure on seamless pipe prices to rise, the domestic seamless pipe supply and demand fundamentals have further room for improvement. The market's current focus is primarily on these fundamentals, and with expected supply and demand improvement after the holiday, seamless pipe prices may see a rise.
