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This week, the domestic raw material market trended downward, leading to a week-on-week decline in billet prices and weakening cost-side support. Steel pipe manufacturers continued to lower their factory-gate prices. Production remained at a high level while mill inventories continued to accumulate. Meanwhile, market shipments were mediocre with sluggish trading performance, as the traditional off-season effect persisted. For international buyers, the combination of declining raw material costs and high inventory pressures among mills creates an advantageous window to negotiate more favorable procurement terms and secure seamless steel pipes at competitive prices for upcoming projects.
1. Price Performance
Seamless Pipe Prices: According to Mysteel survey data, as of July 31, the average price of 108*4.5mm seamless steel pipes across 28 major cities nationwide stood at 4,276 RMB/ton, representing a week-on-week decrease of 9 RMB/ton.
Raw Materials: National billet prices trended weaker over the week, with Shandong billet prices falling by 20 RMB/ton and Jiangsu billet prices dropping by 40 RMB/ton week-on-week. The price spread between northern and southern billets narrowed to 130 RMB/ton, down 20 RMB/ton from the previous week. Dragged down by high temperatures, rainy weather, and the traditional manufacturing off-season, terminal procurement remained sluggish. Billet prices are expected to run steadily with a weak bias next week.
Mill Pricing Adjustments: According to Mysteel's survey of 30 sample seamless steel pipe mills, several mainstream manufacturers lowered their factory prices by 30–100 RMB/ton.
2. Profit Margins and Regional Review
Profit Performance: Profitability for billet-re-rolling seamless pipe mills showed a slight recovery this week. Profits for Shandong rolling mills reached 60 RMB/ton (up 20 RMB/ton week-on-week), while Jiangsu rolling mills recorded 190 RMB/ton (an increase of 10 RMB/ton week-on-week).
East China Market Dynamics: Raw material billet prices in East China continued to decline, with Shandong and Jiangsu billets dropping by 30–50 RMB/ton week-on-week. Mainstream seamless pipe mills in East China made minor downward adjustments of around 30 RMB/ton on select ex-factory quotes. Spot prices in mainstream East China cities remained mostly flat week-on-week: prices in Nanjing and Hangzhou showed no adjustment, while Shanghai dropped by 20 RMB/ton. National sample production of seamless steel pipes recorded a minor increase, and factory inventories continued to accumulate week-on-week without reaching an inventory inflection point. Under the weight of off-season demand constraints and poor order intake, market prices drifted downwards. With August approaching, construction activity will likely remain restricted, keeping prices under downward pressure in the short term. East China seamless steel pipe prices are projected to remain volatile and downward-leaning in the near term.
1. Inventory and Supply Fundamentals
Inventory Status: According to the latest Mysteel survey of 123 national seamless pipe traders, social inventory among sample enterprises stood at 719,300 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons week-on-week. Due to poor off-season shipments and slow turnover, traders showed low willingness to restock, resulting in higher inventory levels.
A survey of 30 production enterprises (covering 101 production lines) showed factory-internal inventories at 913,200 tons (up 8,500 tons week-on-week and 108,900 tons month-on-month), while raw material inventories dropped to 323,700 tons (down 19,400 tons week-on-week, but up 11,900 tons month-on-month). With general shipping performance and poor order collection, mills face significant inventory reduction pressure despite weak cost support and lowered factory prices. Prioritizing aggressive inventory clearance remains the main focus for mills in the short term.
Production Status: Weekly production reached 424,900 tons (up 9,400 tons week-on-week and 30,700 tons month-on-month). Capacity utilization hit 85.22% (up 1.89% week-on-week, 6.16% month-on-month), and the operating rate stood at 78.22% (up 0.99% week-on-week). High production levels pushed factory inventories past 900,000 tons, intensifying operational pressures for manufacturers.
2. Market Forecast and Buyer ImpactThe seamless steel pipe market maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. Cost-side billet prices trended downward, further eroding support for finished products. Although mill profits recovered slightly, slow shipments led to heavy factory inventory accumulation, significantly boosting de-stocking pressure and prompting some manufacturers to lower prices to secure orders. On the demand side, high temperatures, rain, and the traditional off-season suppressed terminal procurement, leaving market circulation quiet. Trader sentiment remained cautious, with covert price concessions and volume-for-price strategies on the rise. In the short term, the contradiction of strong supply and weak demand shows no signs of easing, leaving market confidence low and prices under clear downward pressure. For global buyers, this supply-side pressure and downward price trend provide an ideal window to optimize procurement budgets and secure premium [seamless steel pipes] with maximum cost efficiency.
