en 
Call
+8613166245535
This week, black series futures continued their downward trend. The market supply side continued to expand, while transaction volumes around the Qingming Festival were generally average. Downstream procurement slowed, resulting in a week-on-week contraction in demand. While pipe production has increased for the sixth consecutive week, factory inventories saw a slight decrease and social inventories edged up. With the market currently in a state of tight supply-demand balance, seamless pipe prices are expected to stabilize with minor fluctuations next week.
1. Prices
Seamless Pipes: As of April 10, the average price of 108*4.5mm seamless pipes across 28 major Chinese cities was 4,275 RMB/ton, a minor weekly increase of 2 RMB/ton.
Raw Materials: Billet prices were stable to weak. Shandong billets dropped 20 RMB/ton, while Jiangsu remained flat. The North-South price gap widened to 170 RMB/ton.
Mill Adjustments: Mainstream mills kept ex-factory prices largely stable, with a few individual plants raising quotes by 20–50 RMB/ton.
2. ProfitsProfits for tolling mills saw a narrow recovery. Shandong mills reported profits of -80 RMB/ton (up 10 RMB WoW), while Jiangsu mills remained steady at 140 RMB/ton.
3. East China Market ReviewRaw material costs in East China saw a slight uptick, with Shandong billets rising 10 RMB/ton and Jiangsu staying flat. Most mainstream mills in the region maintained stable ex-factory prices, though some individual quotes rose by 20–50 RMB/ton. Regional market prices were mostly unchanged, except for Hangzhou, which saw a 30 RMB/ton increase. While output continues to rise, a small decrease in factory inventory suggests mills are pushing shipments. Traders remain cautious, following price increases only slightly while waiting for demand to clarify.
1. Inventory
Social Inventory: Samples from 123 traders showed social stocks at 705,000 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons WoW. Weak pre-holiday restocking and lackluster post-holiday sales contributed to this slight accumulation.
Mill Inventory: 30 surveyed mills reported factory stocks at 756,600 tons (down 11,900 tons WoW) and raw material stocks at 349,300 tons (up 4,900 tons WoW).
2. OutputWeekly production reached 432,100 tons (up 5,500 tons WoW). The capacity utilization rate rose to 86.66% (up 1.1% WoW), and the operating rate reached 83.17% (up 0.99% WoW). This marks the sixth consecutive week of growth in output. However, due to fluctuating raw material prices and slowing demand, a production "turning point" (inflection) may occur next week.
3. Market Prediction
Supply: High operating rates and six weeks of rising output have created a loose supply environment. Although mill inventories are down, the overall supply remains ample.
Demand: Market transactions have softened this month, with demand contracting compared to March. This has led to a build-up in trader inventories and a shift toward "fast-in, fast-out" operations.
Sentiment: Weakness in the futures market and average physical sales have kept traders cautious. Mills, however, maintain a strong desire to keep prices firm to protect recovering profit margins.
Conclusion: Given the tight balance between high supply and contracting demand, domestic seamless pipe prices are expected to remain stable in the coming week.
