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This week, black series futures trended upward, boosting market sentiment alongside strong cost support. Driven by rising international oil prices, China’s domestic fuel prices are expected to see their sixth adjustment of the year on March 23. Meanwhile, the March Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the 5-year+ LPR at 3.5% and the 1-year LPR at 3%. On the fundamental side, mill capacity was further released, leading to higher factory stocks; however, social inventory has officially begun to decline as demand recovers. Seamless pipe prices are expected to continue their stable-to-strong trend next week.
1. Prices
Seamless Pipes: As of March 20, the average price of 108*4.5mm seamless pipes across 28 major cities was 4,248 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 7 RMB/ton.
Raw Materials: Billet prices were mixed but leaned strong. Shandong billets rose 70 RMB/ton, while Jiangsu billets fell 70 RMB/ton. The North-South price gap narrowed significantly to 170 RMB/ton.
Mill Adjustments: Most mainstream mills raised ex-factory prices by 20–100 RMB/ton.
2. ProfitsMill profits saw continued recovery this week. Shandong tolling mills reported profits of -50 RMB/ton (up 40 RMB WoW), while Jiangsu mills remained steady at 130 RMB/ton.
3. East China Market ReviewIn Shandong, mainstream mills showed a strong inclination to raise prices following the 70 RMB/ton jump in local billets. However, market prices in Shanghai (4,250 RMB/ton), Nanjing (4,140 RMB/ton), and Hangzhou (4,190 RMB/ton) remained largely flat. While supply and factory stocks increased, traders reported that outbound shipments were slightly below expectations, leading most to prioritize moving existing volume over aggressive price hikes.
1. Inventory
Social Inventory: Data from 123 traders shows social stocks at 705,900 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons WoW. This marks the turning point where inventory accumulation has shifted to a drawdown as downstream demand revives.
Mill Inventory: 30 surveyed mills reported factory stocks at 785,200 tons (up 21,000 tons WoW) and raw material stocks at 306,100 tons (down 6,500 tons WoW).
2. OutputWeekly production rose to 399,200 tons (up 26,700 tons WoW, up 115,400 tons MoM). The capacity utilization rate reached 80.06% (up 5.35% WoW), and the operating rate hit 79.21% (up 5.94% WoW), driven by healthy order books and high production enthusiasm.
3. Market Prediction
Costs: Rising billet prices in key regions have directly pushed up production costs, leading mills in Shandong, South China, and Northwest China to raise ex-factory prices by 20–50 RMB/ton.
Demand: As the traditional peak construction season progresses, infrastructure and engineering projects are accelerating, leading to a steady release of demand.
Sentiment: While traders are still utilizing "volume-for-price" strategies to manage stock, merchants in North, Southwest, and Northwest China remain cautiously optimistic. Expectations of further price hikes by steel plants are providing upward potential.
Conclusion: Supported by rising raw material costs and the steady release of seasonal demand, domestic seamless pipe prices are expected to maintain a stable-to-strong trend next week.
