Mysteel Weekly: Mill & Social Inventories Drop – Seamless Pipe Prices to Stabilize Next Week (Apr 18–25)

Overview
Steel futures fluctuated this week amid muted trading activity and cautious sentiment. Key data for the five major steel products:

• Supply: 8.7584 million tons (+0.4% WoW).

• Total Inventory: 15.3427 million tons (-3.2% WoW).

• Consumption: 9.2625 million tons, with construction materials down 6.9% WoW and flat products down 0.7% WoW.
  Seamless pipe prices edged down RMB 1/ton despite mixed regional price movements.

Weekly Review

Price Trends

• Seamless Pipes: National average price for 108*4.5mm pipes dipped to RMB 4,338/ton (-1/ton WoW), with regional volatility.

• Raw Materials:

• Shandong pipe billets rose RMB 20/ton WoW.

• Jiangsu pipe billets gained RMB 10/ton WoW, narrowing the regional gap.

• Mill Adjustments: 34 surveyed mills raised prices by RMB 20–50/ton, while some cut by RMB 50/ton.

Profit Analysis

• Shandong Mills: Losses narrowed to -RMB 20/ton (+60/ton WoW).

• Jiangsu Mills: Profits held at RMB 180/ton (flat WoW)

East China Market

Shandong pipe billet prices fluctuated (+10–30/ton WoW), with mills offering modest discounts. Regional prices were mixed, though inventories declined slightly.

Inventory Dynamics

• Social Stocks: Inched up to 708,400 tons (+200 tons WoW).

• Mill Stocks: Fell to 604,900 tons (-1,700 tons WoW).

• Production: Output rose to 363,000 tons (+7,100 tons WoW), with capacity utilization at 78.88%.

Market Forecast

Price Outlook

Pre-holiday cost support and stable demand may limit volatility.

Fundamentals

• Supply: High output persists, but inventories remain manageable.

• Demand: Daily consumption steady at 15,000 tons, with pre-holiday restocking anticipated.

Sentiment

Traders remain cautious, prioritizing inventory turnover over speculation.

Conclusion: Prices are expected to stabilize next week, supported by cost resilience and seasonal restocking.