en 
Call
+8613166245535
This week, the average domestic seamless pipe price saw a marginal dip of 1 yuan/ton, primarily due to persistent raw material support, with national pipe billet prices increasing by 10-20 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment was subdued as US Fed rate cut expectations cooled. The market is deep into its seasonal slack, leading to shrinking transaction volumes as traders prioritize inventory reduction. Although mill output and inventory saw a slight dual decline this week, overall mill inventory remains comparably high. Facing limited downstream demand, seamless pipe prices are expected to maintain a stable-to-weak trend in the short term.
Seamless Pipe Prices: According to Mysteel data, as of November 21, the average price of $108 \times 4.5\text{mm}$ seamless pipe across 28 major cities was 4,238 yuan/ton, a marginal week-on-week decline of 1 yuan/ton.
Raw Materials: This week, raw material costs showed slight strength. Shandong pipe billet prices remained stable, while Jiangsu pipe billet prices increased by 20 yuan/ton.
Mill Adjustments: A survey of 34 sample seamless pipe mills by Mysteel indicated that mill ex-factory prices saw mixed adjustments. Individual mills implemented price cuts ranging from 20 to 50 yuan/ton.
Profit Squeeze: Mill profitability deteriorated further this week. Shandong's tolling mill profit dropped by 30 yuan/ton to -130 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu's tolling mill profit decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 240 yuan/ton. The slight strengthening of pipe billet prices, coupled with mill ex-factory price weakness, maintained the continuous inverted profit margin for producers.
The East China seamless pipe market maintained basic stability despite localized mill price cuts (20-50 yuan/ton in parts of Shandong).
This week saw a decrease in mill output and a halt to the increase in mill inventory, alongside continued social inventory reduction.
Downstream purchasing interest remained low, and market transactions were sluggish. Merchants continue to focus on shipping goods to reduce stock.
The overall forecast suggests price consolidation in the East China region next week.
Social Inventory Management:
The latest survey of 123 national seamless pipe merchants showed social inventory at 682,900 tons, a marginal week-on-week increase of 100 tons.
Despite the slight accumulation, the overall slack season demand dictates a primary focus on destocking. Current merchant inventory is slightly higher than the same period last year, intensifying pressure on traders.
Mill Inventory Situation:
Mill-side inventory was 779,400 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,300 tons, indicating a slight relief. Raw material inventory, however, increased by 15,000 tons, driven by mill procurement following the slight rise in billet prices.
Despite the weekly decline, mill inventory remains at a comparably high level year-on-year, ensuring that mills continue to face significant pressure to move stock.
Production Normalization:
This week's sample mill output was 388,900 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3,600 tons. Capacity utilization and operating rates also saw slight drops, although output remains higher than the same period last year. The production is settling into a normalized, though still active, pace.
Pricing Factors: Futures markets ran volatile with a somewhat subdued sentiment. Raw material prices provided some support, preventing a steep price drop. Although mill output and inventory saw a dual decline this week, the high comparative mill inventory maintains the pressure to sell.
Demand Fundamentals: As temperatures continue to drop, any increase in downstream demand is extremely limited, largely confined to rigid necessity purchases. Market transactions are shrinking, and poor profitability offers no momentum for price increases.
Sentiment and Strategy: Traders and end-users are universally adopting a cautious "wait-and-see" mentality. The persistence of the "buy-up, not buy-down" attitude keeps overall transactions weak.
Conclusion: Given the continuing weakness in demand, the high comparative mill inventory, and subdued market sentiment, it is expected that mill ex-factory prices will see a minor downward adjustment trend next week. National seamless pipe prices are anticipated to continue a stable-to-weak trend.
