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During the week of April 10–17, the Chinese seamless pipe market entered a phase of narrow consolidation. While black series futures continued their downward trend, the domestic supply side showed signs of reaching a "turning point." Currently, the market is characterized by a "tight balance": production has peaked and started to decline slightly, while downstream procurement has slowed compared to the high-demand period of March. For global buyers, this signals a transition from rapid price fluctuations to a period of price stability, offering a more predictable window for logistical planning and inventory replenishment.
Price Performance: The average price of 108*4.5mm seamless pipes across 28 major Chinese cities settled at 4268 RMB/ton, reflecting a marginal weekly decrease of 7 RMB/ton. Despite the fluctuations in the futures market, physical spot prices remain resilient due to firm raw material support.
Raw Material Strength: In contrast to finished pipes, raw material costs (tube blanks) strengthened. Prices in Shandong rose by 30 RMB/ton, while Jiangsu saw a 20 RMB/ton increase. The price gap between North and South China narrowed to 160 RMB/ton.
Manufacturer Margins: Profit margins are under pressure. In Shandong, the profit for pipe mills dropped to -120 RMB/ton, a decrease of 40 RMB/ton within a week. Jiangsu mills maintained a profit of 130 RMB/ton.
Customer Benefit: The negative profit margins in Northern China act as a "price floor." Manufacturers are showing strong resistance to further price cuts to avoid deepening losses, which protects the value of your current inventory.
Production Turning Point: Weekly output hit 428,400 tons, a slight decrease of 3700 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate stands at 85.92%. Crucially, several Northern mills have announced upcoming maintenance and production halts, which will likely tighten supply in the short term.
Inventory Status: Factory inventories increased slightly to 759,700 tons, while social inventories (held by traders) decreased to 704,800 tons. This suggests that while mills are producing at high rates, the "middlemen" are successfully moving stock to end-users, maintaining a healthy flow of goods.
Customer Benefit: As production slows and maintenance begins, the current ample factory inventory ensures that export orders can still be fulfilled promptly before any potential supply tightening occurs in late April.
Buyer Behavior: Domestic trading activity has moderated. Market participants are adopting a "fast-in, fast-out" strategy to mitigate risks from futures volatility. This cautious sentiment prevents the market from overheating.
Strategic Outlook: Given that mill prices are largely stable and production is tapering off, there is little incentive for a sharp price drop. The supply-demand equilibrium is expected to remain firm.
Price Forecast: For the coming week, we anticipate seamless pipe prices to remain "震荡趋稳" (stabilizing within a narrow range). The combination of firm raw material costs and planned maintenance will provide a solid ceiling and floor for the market.
The seamless pipe market has moved past the volatility of early spring into a more stable equilibrium. For international procurement, the current price plateau, backed by high raw material costs and tightening production, suggests that waiting for a major price crash is unlikely to yield results. Instead, focusing on securing supply from mills with stable production and low inventory risk is the recommended strategy for the remainder of April.
