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Overview: This week saw uniformly weak seamless pipe pricing, with mainstream mills cutting prices to stimulate orders. Mill inventories continued rising while trader stocks declined. Northern resource arrivals faced disruptions, and falling prices hampered material flow as traders adopted minimal restocking. Supply-demand dynamics remain unchanged from prior periods, with weak cost support sustaining downward price pressure.
Seamless Pipes: National average (108×4.5mm): 4,281 yuan/ton as of June 13 WoW change: ↓ 21 yuan/ton
Raw Materials (Billet): Shandong billet: Unchanged WoW Jiangsu billet: ↓ 10 yuan/ton
Mill Price Adjustments: 34 sampled mills cut ex-factory prices by 20-60 yuan/ton.
Shandong Billet-Processing Mills: Profits improved due to lower costs
East China Regional Report
Market Prices: Shanghai: ↓ 20 yuan/ton to 4,240/ton Nanjing: ↓ 20 yuan/ton to 4,150/ton Hangzhou: Unchanged at 4,240/ton
Market Drivers: Sluggish off-season transactions and weakening costs slowed price adjustments.
Inventory: Social stocks ↑ 5,400 tons WoW (accumulation trend emerging).
Outlook: Weak pricing expected to persist.
Social Inventory (123 traders): 698,700 tons (↓ 7,700 tons WoW)
Mill Inventory (33 producers): 697,800 tons (↑ 31,000 tons WoW; ↑ 71,400 tons vs May)
Raw Material Inventory (Mills): 304,400 tons (↑ 400 tons WoW; ↑ 8,300 tons vs May)
Production: 369,600 tons (↓ 1,200 tons WoW)
Capacity Utilization: 80.31% (↓ 0.26% WoW)
Operating Rate: 58.18% (↓ 0.91% WoW)
Key Observation: Output contraction observed amid inventory pressure.
Price Drivers: Narrow-range billet weakness and mill price cuts maintain fragile cost support.
Fundamentals: Southern rains disrupt construction/transportation without improving supply-demand balance.
Market Sentiment: Bearish outlook dominates as confidence erodes.
Forecast Conclusion: Nationwide seamless pipe prices expected to continue weak operation.
