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Summary: During China's National Day holiday, the domestic seamless pipe market remained stable despite minimal transactions, with prices largely holding firm. The overall market activity slowed as traders took time off, yet most warehouses maintained normal loading and unloading operations. Mill output saw a slight dip due to minor maintenance, leading to an uptick in both mill and social inventories due to poor sales. With futures and mill quotes showing slight pre-holiday declines that have not yet fully transmitted to the physical market, most merchants are adopting a cautious, wait-and-see attitude post-holiday, with prices widely expected to see a slight dip before stabilizing.
Market Transactions:
During the holiday, the volume of seamless pipe transactions across most markets was lower than before the holiday, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere.
Major circulation markets, such as Liaocheng and Linyi, primarily operated on a rotating holiday schedule, while other mainstream markets took vacations ranging from 2 to 5 days.
Warehouse loading and unloading mostly remained normal, with a small amount of inventory arriving during the holiday, leading to a slight increase in social inventory.
As of the time of writing, the national market has largely resumed normal operations, but there has been no significant improvement in transactions.
Pipe Mills:
Mysteel's research indicates that a small number of mills underwent maintenance and shutdowns during the holiday, leading to a minor decline in output and operating rates.
Due to poor shipments during the holiday, mill in-house inventory increased somewhat, while raw material inventory mostly showed a decreasing trend.
As of the time of writing, most mill quotes remain stable compared to the pre-holiday level (September 30), which itself saw a slight decline.
Market Sentiment:
Merchants across various regions saw only small amounts of inventory arrival during the holiday, resulting in a slight increase in social inventory.
Given the general decline in black futures prices and a slight drop in mill quotes before the holiday—which most markets did not immediately follow—the majority of merchants are holding a cautious, wait-and-see attitude toward the post-holiday market, with some short-term pessimistic views.
Inventory Rises Slightly, Prices Hold Steady During the Holiday
Most seamless pipe markets in the East China region took 3 to 5 days off during the National Day holiday, with key circulation markets like Liaocheng and Linyi operating on a rotation basis. Loading and unloading proceeded normally.
Prices remained stable throughout the holiday period. Key transaction prices for 108*4.5mm seamless pipe were reported as 4,100 yuan/ton in Liaocheng (mainstream) and 4,090 yuan/ton in Linyi (continuous rolling resources). Prices in major cities included Shanghai at 4,270 yuan/ton, Nanjing at 4,290 yuan/ton, and Hangzhou at 4,290 yuan/ton.
Supply: Most mills in Shandong and Jiangsu operated normally, with minimal maintenance activity that had a very limited impact on overall output. Mill inventory increased slightly due to reduced shipments during the holiday, and mill quotes were mostly flat compared to pre-holiday levels. The slight price drop from mills before the holiday has largely not yet been transmitted to the market.
Circulation: Market transactions significantly declined compared to the pre-holiday period, affected by logistics and downstream closures. Traders' inventory increased slightly.
Sentiment: Most merchants hold a pessimistic view toward the short-term post-holiday outlook and are maintaining cautious operations.
Forecast: Given the slight decline in mill ex-factory prices before the holiday, seamless pipe prices in the East China region are expected to dip first, then stabilize and rise post-holiday.
