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I. Weekly Review
Price Performance
Seamless Pipes: National average (108×4.5mm): 4,271 yuan/ton as of June 18 WoW change: ↓ 10 yuan/ton (Declines in major markets)
Raw Materials (Billet): Shandong billet: ↑ 10 yuan/ton WoW Jiangsu billet: ↓ 20 yuan/ton WoW
Mill Price Adjustments: 34 sampled mills cut ex-factory prices by 20-50 yuan/ton.
Profitability Analysis
Shandong Billet-Processing Mills: Average profit: -70 yuan/ton (↑ 20 yuan/ton WoW)
East China Regional Report
Market Prices: Shanghai/Nanjing/Hangzhou: Unchanged WoW (4240/4150/4240 yuan/ton for 108×4.5mm)
Market Drivers: Weak billet prices and poor off-season transactions sustained price stability.
Inventory: Social stocks ↓ 6,100 tons WoW (Shift from accumulation).
Outlook: Weak consolidation expected to continue.
II. Next Week Forecast
Inventory Analysis
Social Inventory (123 traders): 693,500 tons (↓ 5,200 tons WoW)
Mill Inventory (33 producers): 714,300 tons (↑ 16,500 tons WoW; ↑ 83,600 tons vs May)
Raw Material Inventory (Mills): 298,000 tons (↓ 16,400 tons WoW; ↓ 3,700 tons vs May)
Supply Analysis
Production: 374,800 tons (↑ 5,200 tons WoW)
Capacity Utilization: 81.44% (↑ 1.13% WoW)
Operating Rate: 59.09% (↑ 0.91% WoW)
Key Driver: Partial resumption of idled production lines.
Market Prediction
Price Drivers: Mixed billet performance and mill discounts sustain weak price oscillations.
Fundamentals: Declining trader inventories contrast with rising mill stocks. Declining trend in molten iron output weakens cost support.
Market Sentiment: Month-end focus on destocking dominates trader mindset.
Forecast Conclusion: National seamless pipe prices expected to stabilize with weak bias.
