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Prices edged up 13 RMB/t nationally amid selective mill hikes, though demand remained tepid. Production rose 0.75k tons as some plants resumed operations, while trader restocking slowed. With cost support intact and inventories stable, seamless pipe prices are poised for consolidation next week.
1. Price & Profit Trends
National Average: 4,352 RMB/ton (↑13 RMB/t WoW)
Raw Materials: Shandong billets: Stable WoW; Jiangsu billets: ↓10 RMB/t WoW
Mill Adjustments:Partial hikes: 30-60 RMB/t (select mills); Rare cuts: -100 RMB/t (isolated cases)
Profit Squeeze: Shandong: -60 RMB/t (↓100 RMB/t WoW); Jiangsu: 200 RMB/t (↓60 RMB/t WoW); Blast furnace mills: ↓33 RMB/t WoW
Social Stocks: 696.4k tons (↓0.01k tons WoW) – near equilibrium
Mill Stocks: 679.2k tons (↑8.9k tons WoW) as trader restocking paused
Production Uptick: Output: 365.6k tons (↑7.5k tons WoW); Capacity utilization: 79.44% (↑1.63% WoW)
Mills raised prices despite billet dip (↓10-30 RMB/t)
Social inventories rose on preemptive restocking ahead of environmental curbs
Terminal demand muted—transactions driven by essential purchases
Outlook: Modest upward price pressure
Price Trajectory: Stable consolidation (4,340–4,370 RMB/t range)
Support Factors:
Cost Floor: Billet prices holding above breakeven
Trader Psychology: High delivery costs sustaining price support
Downside Risks: Profit squeeze in Shandong may force output cuts；Persistent weak consumption in northern regions
Critical Watchpoint: Planned mill maintenance could tighten supply
