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This week, black series futures rose before retracing, while the market maintained a high level of both supply and demand with firm cost support. International oil prices rebounded from daily lows as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified, with Asian markets rising approximately 1% early Thursday. In terms of fundamentals, mill capacity continued to climb, factory inventories peaked and began to decline, and social inventories maintained a steady downward trend. With strong demand performance, seamless pipe prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias next week.
1. Prices
Seamless Pipes: As of March 27, the average price of 108*4.5mm seamless pipes across 28 major Chinese cities was 4,266 RMB/ton, up 18 RMB/ton WoW.
Raw Materials: Billet prices trended strong. Shandong billets rose 40 RMB/ton, and Jiangsu billets rose 10 RMB/ton. The North-South price gap narrowed to 140 RMB/ton.
Mill Adjustments: Most mainstream mills raised ex-factory prices by 30–100 RMB/ton.
2. ProfitsMill profits saw further recovery. Shandong tolling mills reported profits of -50 RMB/ton (steady WoW), while Jiangsu mills reached 160 RMB/ton (up 30 RMB WoW).
3. East China Market ReviewRising billet costs in Shandong and Jiangsu pushed regional production costs higher. Consequently, mainstream mills in Shandong followed suit with price hikes. Key markets in East China saw modest gains: Shanghai (4,280 RMB/ton), Nanjing (4,160 RMB/ton), and Hangzhou (4,190 RMB/ton). On the supply side, output rose for the third consecutive week. Factory inventories shifted from accumulation to reduction, while raw material stocks increased slightly, reflecting high production enthusiasm and faster shipment cycles. Bullish sentiment is prevailing.
1. Inventory
Social Inventory: Samples from 123 traders showed social stock at 702,700 tons, down 3,200 tons WoW. The end-of-month sales push has accelerated the drawdown of trader inventories.
Mill Inventory: 30 surveyed mills reported factory stocks at 772,400 tons (down 12,800 tons WoW) and raw material stocks at 344,100 tons (up 38,000 tons WoW).
2. OutputWeekly production rose to 423,500 tons (up 24,300 tons WoW, up 129,900 tons MoM). The capacity utilization rate hit 84.93% (up 4.87% WoW), and the operating rate reached 80.2% (up 0.99% WoW). Higher production enthusiasm is driven by recovering mill profits and a healthy order environment.
3. Market Prediction
Costs: Sustained increases in billet prices in Shandong and Jiangsu provide strong cost support. Mainstream mills in Shandong, South China, and Northwest China have raised ex-factory prices by 30–100 RMB/ton.
Supply: Operating rates and output are at high levels. Healthy order intake has led to a pivot in factory stocks (now decreasing), ensuring sufficient supply.
Demand: Downstream demand is releasing steadily. Coupled with the end-of-month procurement rush, market activity remains robust.
Conclusion: Driven by the "dual growth" of supply and demand alongside firm raw material costs, domestic seamless pipe prices are expected to fluctuate upward next week.
