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Prices held steady in most markets this week, though hidden discounts emerged as Shandong mills trimmed offers by 10-50 RMB/ton. Mill inventories climbed 18k tons weekly, reflecting persistent order pressure amid tepid demand. With supply-demand fundamentals weakening and transactions dominated by low-price deals, seamless pipe prices face downward pressure in the coming week.
National Average: 4,343 RMB/ton (↓3 RMB/t WoW), masking underlying softness
Raw Material Divergence: Shandong billets: ↑10 RMB/t WoW; Jiangsu billets: ↓20 RMB/t WoW
Mill Pricing: Selective cuts (10-50 RMB/t) as demand weakened
Shandong: -70 RMB/t (↓50 RMB/t WoW) – losses deepen
Jiangsu: 210 RMB/t (stable WoW) – regional advantage holds
Structural Strain: Cost disparities push Shandong mills deeper into red
Social Stocks: 686k tons (↓3.8k tons WoW) – traders destock cautiously
Mill Stocks: 697.2k tons (↑18k tons WoW) – production exceeds orders
Pressure Point: Mill inventories up 14.8k tons MoM despite output cuts
Output: 382.8k tons (↓7.5k tons WoW) – modest reduction
Operational Rates: Capacity utilization: 76.77% (↓1.77% WoW)；Operating rate: 73.27% (↓5.52% WoW)
Insufficient Correction: Production remains 17.7k tons above 2024 levels
Shanghai: 4,370 RMB/t
Nanjing: 4,250 RMB/t
Hangzhou: 4,350 RMB/t
Shandong production cuts continued, but inventory kept rising
Heatwave suppressed demand – transactions dominated by essential purchases
Traders offered hidden discounts to clear stock
Outlook: Weakness persists
Price Trajectory: Softening bias (4,320–4,350 RMB/t range)
Support Factors: Cost Floor: Shandong billets showing tentative stability;Inventory Control: Traders maintaining lean operations
Downside Risks: Mill inventory overhang may trigger steeper discounts;Seasonal demand recovery remains elusive
Key Watchpoint: Jiangsu's profit resilience vs Shandong's deepening crisis
