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This week, domestic seamless pipe prices saw a marginal adjustment, edging up by 2 yuan/ton week-on-week. Raw material prices rose by 10–20 yuan/ton, providing a steady cost floor. However, mainstream mills have largely kept their ex-factory quotes stable as the market enters the depths of the off-season. Trading remains cautious with most prices holding flat.
On the macro front, a significant announcement from State Grid revealed that fixed asset investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026–2030) will reach 4 trillion yuan, a record high and a 40% increase compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. This capital will be prioritized for technological innovation and the construction of new power systems. In the market, futures fluctuated, initially lifting sentiment before returning to a rational state. As January progresses, Northern regions are preparing for the holiday break, while Southern demand remains limited. Consequently, seamless pipe prices are expected to continue running stable next week.
【Price Dynamics】
Seamless Pipe Prices: According to Mysteel data, as of January 16, the average price of 108*4.5mm seamless pipes across 28 major cities was 4,224 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton week-on-week.
Raw Materials: Shandong pipe billet prices rose by 10 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu billets rose by 20 yuan/ton. The price gap between the North and South widened by 10 yuan to 300 yuan/ton.
Mill Adjustments: Most mainstream mills maintained stable ex-factory prices, with only isolated cases of increases ranging from 30–100 yuan/ton.
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【Profit Performance】
Mill profits showed a regional divergence:
Shandong Tolling Mills: Profit stood at -90 yuan/ton, a slight improvement of 10 yuan/ton week-on-week.
Analysis: Weak downstream demand and slow shipment rates have left mills squeezed between rising raw material costs and stagnant finished product prices. Many remain operating below the break-even point.
East China Regional Review:
Despite a minor uptick in raw material costs (Shandong +10, Jiangsu +20), seamless pipe prices in major East China cities remained unchanged. While national production fell, the pace of mill destocking slowed significantly. Traders are largely cautious regarding "Winter Storage," and the market is expected to continue its weak consolidation phase next week.
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【Inventory Outlook】
Social Inventory: A survey of 123 traders shows social inventory at 663,800 tons, an increase of 6,400 tons. This marks the beginning of a stockpiling phase as Winter Storage resources arrive at warehouses. Given poor transaction volumes, social inventory is expected to continue rising.
Mill Inventory: A survey of 33 production enterprises shows in-plant inventory at 694,900 tons, up 4,800 tons. Slow shipment rhythms have led to a small accumulation at mills, though this may ease next week as more resources are transferred to traders.
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【Production Outlook】
Output: Weekly production was 350,300 tons, down a marginal 200 tons week-on-week.
Operating Rate: Decreased by 3.96% to 70.3%.
Analysis: Mainstream mills are maintaining a normal production rhythm with minimal fluctuations, keeping the overall supply relatively loose.
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【Market Prediction】
The market is currently characterized by a "stalemate" between costs and demand:
Cost Support: Slight increases in pipe billet prices keep the cost floor intact, preventing significant price drops.
Supply Balance: Production is stable, but inventories are gradually shifting from mills to social warehouses.
Demand Constraint: As the seasonal off-peak deepens, plummeting temperatures have stalled outdoor construction. Furthermore, year-end capital recovery pressures are dampening purchasing intent.
Conclusion: With supply-demand contradictions unlikely to resolve in the short term and a lack of upward momentum, national seamless pipe prices are expected to remain stable next week.
