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This week, domestic seamless pipe prices underwent a marginal adjustment, falling by 8 yuan/ton week-on-week. Raw material prices dropped by 20–30 yuan/ton, causing cost-side support to loosen slightly. Most mills have adopted a "one-case-one-negotiation" pricing strategy for orders, while the broader market remains cautious due to the deepening off-season.
On the macro level, Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, outlined key strategies for the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026–2030). The focus will be on the construction of "Quality Houses" and the acceleration of a new real estate development model, including the transition toward a "presale-to-existing-sale" system to ensure buyers get exactly what they see. In the market, futures fluctuated downward, pulling sentiment back toward fundamentals. As the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, demand has contracted significantly; Northern markets are largely entering holiday mode, while Southern activity remains limited. Consequently, seamless pipe prices are expected to continue running stable next week.
【Price Dynamics】
Seamless Pipe Prices: As of January 23, the average price of 108*4.5mm seamless pipes across 28 major cities was 4,216 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week-on-week.
Raw Materials: Shandong pipe billet prices fell by 30 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu billets dropped by 20 yuan/ton. The price gap between the North and South narrowed slightly to 290 yuan/ton.
Mill Adjustments: A survey of 34 sample mills shows most kept prices stable, with isolated drops of 20 yuan/ton.
【Profit Performance】
Shandong Tolling Mills: Profits held steady at -90 yuan/ton.
Jiangsu Tolling Mills: Profits fell significantly to 60 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton).
Analysis: With weak downstream demand and stagnant finished product prices, mill margins are being heavily squeezed. Despite the drop in billet costs, profits remain at or below the break-even line.
Billet prices in East China fell (Shandong -20, Jiangsu -30), and while most mills held quotes steady, a few lowered prices by 20 yuan/ton. National production shifted from a decline to a slight increase, raising mill inventory by 28,300 tons and maintaining pressure on manufacturers. East China market prices were flat; however, trading is sparse as merchants await official "Winter Storage" policies.
【Inventory Outlook】
Social Inventory: Surveying 123 traders, social inventory reached 670,300 tons (up 6,500 tons). This increase is attributed to the arrival of early Winter Storage resources. Inventory is expected to continue rising as incoming shipments outpace sluggish sales.
Mill Inventory: Surveying 33 production enterprises, in-plant inventory rose to 723,200 tons (up 28,300 tons). While slow shipments caused this week's accumulation, inventories are expected to dip slightly next week as mills begin holiday maintenance and transfer stock to social warehouses.
【Production Outlook】
Output: Weekly production rose to 355,400 tons (up 5,100 tons).
Capacity Utilization: Increased to 71.28% (+1.02%).
Operating Rate: Increased to 72.28% (+1.98%). Production rhythms remained normal this week with a slight upward tilt, though a shift toward maintenance is expected soon.
【Market Prediction】
The market is currently caught in a cycle of "Dual Weakness":
Supply Side: While current supply is relatively loose, the arrival of more billet resources and rising social inventory are capping any price rebounds.
Demand Side: Severe cold waves have brought outdoor construction to a virtual standstill in the North. Combined with slow capital recovery at the year-end, terminal demand continues to fade.
Cost Side: The 20–30 yuan drop in billet prices has weakened the cost floor, encouraging a "wait-and-see" attitude among traders.
Conclusion: With both supply and demand at low ebb and prices lacking a strong catalyst, national seamless pipe prices are expected to remain stable next week.
