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This week, raw material prices trended weak, tube billet prices declined, and cost support weakened. Seamless pipe mill ex-factory prices continued to adjust downward. Mill output saw a slight decline while inventories continued to accumulate. Market trading remained subdued, with downstream procurement staying cautious. For overseas buyers sourcing seamless steel pipes from China, the current combination of softening prices and elevated mill inventories presents a window for favorable procurement terms — though potential cost stabilization ahead warrants timely decision-making.
1. Price Movement
Seamless Pipe Prices: According to Mysteel survey data, as of August 14, the national average price for 108×4.5mm seamless pipe across 28 major cities stood at 4,253 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton week-on-week.
Raw Materials: National tube billet prices trended weak this week. Shandong billet prices fell 10 yuan/ton week-on-week, and Jiangsu billet prices also declined 10 yuan/ton week-on-week. The north-south billet price gap narrowed to 120 yuan/ton, a 10 yuan/ton reduction week-on-week. Under dual-coal production restriction policies, raw material supply is tightening, and billet prices may stabilize and stop declining. For overseas buyers, potential billet price stabilization means the current cost advantage may narrow — advancing procurement timelines could lock in lower input costs.
Mill Price Adjustments: According to a Mysteel survey of 30 sample seamless pipe mills, some major mills lowered ex-factory prices by 20–50 yuan/ton. For international buyers, mill price reductions directly translate to more competitive FOB offers — particularly for orders placed while inventory pressure remains high.
2. Profit Performance
In terms of profitability, billet-rolling seamless pipe mill profits saw slight recovery this week. Shandong billet-rolling mill profit stood at 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week-on-week. Jiangsu billet-rolling mill profit reached 170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week-on-week. For overseas buyers, the thin profit margins at the mill level indicate limited further downside in ex-factory prices — mills are already operating near breakeven, which means current price levels may be close to a floor.
3. East China Market Review
The East China seamless pipe market was under sustained pressure this week, with regional price adjustments varying in magnitude. Shanghai market fell 20 yuan/ton to 4,260 yuan/ton. Nanjing market saw a larger decline of 40 yuan/ton to 4,170 yuan/ton. Hangzhou market held relatively steady at 4,130 yuan/ton. On the cost side, while Shandong and Jiangsu billet prices saw a slight uptick of 10–20 yuan/ton, major Shandong mills actually loosened their ex-factory quotes, limiting the cost-side boost to spot prices. Supply-side, both seamless pipe output and mill inventories rose, increasing supply pressure. Demand maintained its off-season character, with downstream users purchasing on a need-only basis. Overall trading saw no volume expansion, and distributors reported sluggish sales with widespread price concessions in actual transactions. With insufficient cost support and persistently weak demand, East China seamless pipe prices are expected to remain on a weak trajectory in the near term. For overseas importers, Hangzhou's relative price stability at 4,130 yuan/ton may signal a local floor — buyers sourcing from this region could benefit from locking in current levels before any cost-driven recovery.
1. Inventory Outlook
Social Inventory: According to the latest Mysteel survey of 123 national seamless pipe distributors, sample enterprise social inventory reached 719,300 tons, up 2,400 tons week-on-week. Off-season market sales have been poor, distributor turnover is sluggish, restocking willingness is low, and inventory has increased.
Mill Inventory: The national seamless pipe weekly production survey (30 sample producers, 101 production lines) showed mill inventory at 925,200 tons, up 6,300 tons week-on-week and up 67,100 tons month-on-month. Raw material inventory stood at 322,100 tons, down 1,600 tons week-on-week but up 22,400 tons month-on-month. Due to weak off-season downstream demand, mill order intake has been sluggish and inventory continues to accumulate. However, as mill output gradually declines, inventory may be approaching a destocking inflection point. For international buyers, high mill inventory levels mean mills are currently highly motivated to accept orders and negotiate on terms — this leverage may diminish once destocking begins.
2. Production Outlook
This week, output stood at 384,900 tons, down 9,400 tons week-on-week and down 11,500 tons month-on-month. Capacity utilization rate was 77.2%, down 1.88 percentage points week-on-week and down 2.31 percentage points month-on-month. Operating rate was 73.27%, down 1.98 percentage points week-on-week and down 4.95 percentage points month-on-month. Output declined slightly this week. With mill inventories currently elevated, production is expected to continue falling next week under inventory pressure. For overseas buyers, declining production signals tightening future supply — placing orders before output cuts fully translate into reduced availability could help secure both pricing and lead times.
3. Market Forecast
The seamless pipe market's oversupply-weak-demand pattern continued this week. On the cost side, tube billet prices trended weak, and national seamless pipe prices softened slightly. On the supply side, mill output declined slightly but mill inventories continued to accumulate, keeping supply pressure elevated. On the demand side, high temperatures and heavy rainfall persisted, compounding off-season effects. Downstream procurement demand remained weak, and overall trading showed little improvement. However, since August, Shanxi coal mine production restriction policies have reduced coking coal supply, which is bullish for billet prices — billet prices may see a stabilization and recovery trend going forward. Taking these factors together, seamless pipe prices are expected to oscillate next week. For international buyers, this means the current price weakness may be short-lived — the window for securing bottom-level pricing could close as raw material costs recover. Buyers planning Q3/Q4 procurement should consider advancing their sourcing timeline.
The national seamless steel pipe market remained in an oversupply-weak-demand pattern this week, with the national average price at 4,253 yuan/ton and mill inventories continuing to climb to 925,200 tons. While tube billet prices have been softening, Shanxi coal mine production restrictions are tightening raw material supply, which may stabilize billet costs in the coming weeks. Mill output has begun to decline, and a potential destocking inflection point may be approaching. For international buyers sourcing seamless steel pipes from China, the current environment offers a narrow but valuable procurement window: prices are near breakeven levels for mills, inventories are high, and mills are motivated to negotiate — but these conditions may shift as raw material costs recover and production cuts tighten supply. Buyers who act before the anticipated cost stabilization can secure more competitive pricing and favorable delivery terms.
