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Overview This week ignited a rare price rally: National seamless pipe average rose 17 yuan/ton as mills pushed up offers! While speculative buying lifted spirits, terminal demand remained weak. With inventories falling and costs climbing, the market braces for a make-or-break standoff next week.
Nationwide surge: Average price hit 4,264 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan weekly) - first gain in 8 weeks.
Cost squeeze: Shandong billets jumped 30 yuan/ton, Jiangsu billets up 20 yuan/ton - forcing mills to hike pipe prices 20-50 yuan/ton.
Profit rebound: Shandong processors reached break-even (0 yuan/ton profit vs. 20 yuan loss last week).
Price gains: Shanghai (4,250 yuan), Nanjing (4,160 yuan), Hangzhou (4,260 yuan) up 30 yuan/ton.
Inventory paradox: Mill stocks fell 4,700 tons while social stocks dipped slightly to 687,300 tons.
Cold truth: "Buyers reject high prices! This rally relies on speculators, not real demand." (Mysteel field agent).
Output creep: Production inched up 800 tons to 371,100 tons as northern mills resumed operations.
Inventory relief:
Mill stocks down to 712,300 tons (4,700-ton weekly drop).
Raw material inventories plunged 23,800 tons as mills resisted high-cost billets.
Demand deception: Transaction growth driven by traders, not end-users - actual consumption stagnant.
Bull case: Low inventories (social stocks at 687,300 tons) + cost support may limit declines.
Bear case: Terminal rejection of high prices + vanishing speculative demand = rally unsustainable.
Key indicator: Watch Shandong billet prices - further hikes could trigger mill production cuts.
