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This week, black series futures fluctuated with an upward bias, and market sentiment remained cautiously optimistic. Upstream raw material prices experienced minor fluctuations, and cost support strengthened. Key developments include: Baosteel raising its April seamless pipe base price by 200 RMB/ton; NPC deputies suggesting early implementation of crude steel output controls; the PBOC implementing moderately loose monetary policies; and construction site restart rates reaching 42.5% (down 5.2% YoY). Consumption of the five major steel varieties rose 15.4% WoW, with building materials surging 55.2%. While mill orders were average and inventories slightly accumulated, mainstream prices trended stronger. Overall, prices are expected to remain stable with an upward bias next week.
1. Prices
Seamless Pipes: As of March 13, the average price of 108*4.5mm seamless pipes across 28 major Chinese cities was 4,241 RMB/ton, up 22 RMB/ton WoW.
Raw Materials: Billet prices were strong. Shandong billets rose 40 RMB/ton, and Jiangsu billets rose 30 RMB/ton. The North-South price gap narrowed to 250 RMB/ton.
Mill Adjustments: Most mainstream mills raised ex-factory prices by 20–100 RMB/ton.
2. ProfitsProfits for tolling mills saw a slight recovery. Shandong mills reported profits of -90 RMB/ton (up 20 RMB WoW); Jiangsu mills reached 130 RMB/ton (up 20 RMB WoW). Despite the recovery, rising billet prices continue to erode profit margins.
3. East China Market ReviewWith billet prices rising, mainstream mills in Shandong followed suit. Market prices in Shanghai (4,250 RMB/ton), Nanjing (4,140 RMB/ton), and Hangzhou (4,190 RMB/ton) rose by approximately 20 RMB/ton. Supply continues to recover, and rising costs have improved procurement enthusiasm, slowing the growth of mill inventories. While transactions have improved as demand is released, most traders are focusing on shipments with modest price hikes.
1. Inventory
Social Inventory: Samples from 123 traders showed social stock at 70.70 million tons, up 0.67 million tons WoW, largely due to the arrival of "winter storage" resources.
Mill Inventory: 30 surveyed mills reported factory stocks at 76.42 million tons (up 1.16 million WoW) and raw material stocks at 31.26 million tons (down 0.8 million WoW).
2. OutputWeekly production reached 37.25 million tons (up 2.31 million WoW). The capacity utilization rate rose to 74.7% (up 4.63%), and the operating rate reached 73.27% (up 2.97%) as mills resumed operations post-maintenance.
3. Market Prediction
Price: Strong raw material costs and mill price hikes (20–100 RMB) have pushed the national average up by 22 RMB. Most markets are following with small increases.
Fundamentals: Production and factory stocks are rising simultaneously. Although supply currently outpaces demand, the acceleration of downstream construction is leading to marginal improvements in transaction volumes.
Sentiment: Bolstered by futures and mill hikes, sentiment is recovering. Traders face less pressure but remain cautious, prioritizing active destocking due to high inventory levels.
Conclusion: With the "Golden March" demand releasing and strong cost support, seamless pipe prices are expected to run stable to strong next week.
