Mysteel Monthly Report: Seamless Pipe Prices to Edge Higher in March 2025

Executive Summary

• Price Trajectory: National average holds at 4,433 RMB/ton with 0.24% MoM dip in February

• Critical Catalysts:

• 73.03% capacity utilization (+17.12pp YoY)

• 572,260-ton annual export volume (+1.03% YoY)

• Fed policy pivot amplifies raw material volatility

• March Outlook: 3-5% price rebound projected amid demand recovery and policy tailwinds

I. Price & Profitability Analysis

February Price Trends

• National Average: 4,433 RMB/ton (-11 RMB MoM)

• Shandong: 4,420 RMB (-0.3% MoM)

• Jiangsu: 4,450 RMB (+0.2% MoM)

• Post-holiday stability masks 15% demand contraction

  
  

Mill Profit Dynamics

• Shandong Mills:

• Margins plunge to -30 RMB/ton (-130 RMB MoM)

• Legacy high-cost inventory drags profitability

• Jiangsu Mills:

• Profits climb to 160 RMB/ton (+30 RMB MoM)

• Benefit from coastal export arbitrage

  
  

II. Supply Chain Pressures

Production Resurgence

• February Output: 337,400 tons weekly (+31% MoM)

• Operational Metrics:

• Capacity utilization hits 73.03% (17.12pp YoY gain)

• Mill inventories at 634,100 tons (-0.4% MoM)

• Strategic Shift: 18% mills adopt AI-driven yield optimization

Raw Material Volatility

• Billet prices dip to 3,536 RMB/ton (-1.03% MoM)

• Procurement caution prevails with 29,950-ton mill reserves (-1.9% WoW)

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III. Demand & Trade Dynamics

Domestic Consumption

• February Transactions: 14,133 tons weekly (-4.4% WoW)

• Post-holiday restocking drives 100.12% YoY volume surge

• 65% traders maintain "wait-and-see" inventories

Export Surge

• December Spike: 601,400 tons exported (+31.54% YoY)

• Pre-2025 tariff hedge drives order front-loading

• Key markets: Middle East (38%), SEA (29%), EU (18%)

  
  

IV. March Market Outlook

Triple-Catalyst Framework

1. Policy Momentum:

• 15% VAT reduction for infrastructure steels

• 220B RMB urban renewal package

• Two Sessions expected to unveil:

2. Seasonal Demand:

• 70% downstream projects to resume by March 15

• Northern thaw timeline: March 10-18

3. Cost Push:

• Billet prices projected to rebound 2.5-3.8%

Price Projections

• Bull Scenario (40%): 4,480-4,520 RMB range

• Base Case (50%): 4,450-4,480 RMB (+0.5-1.0%)

• Bear Case (10%): 4,400 support level hold

Strategic Recommendations

1. Inventory Strategy:

• Build 45-day coverage of API 5L grades

• Rotate 20% stocks via cross-regional arbitrage

2. Pricing Tactics:

• Implement zone-based premium/discount matrix

• Hedge 30% exposure via SHFE hot-rolled coil futures

3. Policy Positioning:

• Pre-qualify for Q2 urban renewal tenders

• Secure export certifications for EU carbon compliance