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September, the traditional peak season, saw disappointing performance in the ferrous metals market, with prices for steel and seamless pipes falling due to retreating raw material costs and lower-than-expected demand. Seamless pipe supply increased, but demand growth was limited, squeezing mill profits and slowing inventory digestion. With cautious stocking before the National Day holiday, the fundamental performance for September was lackluster, and prices weakened alongside costs. The question now is whether the seamless pipe market can seize the tail end of the "Silver October" peak season for a price turnaround. This report summarizes September's fundamentals and forecasts price trends for October.
Seamless Pipe Prices Showed Volatile Decline in September: According to Mysteel statistics, as of September 30, the average price of domestic seamless pipe (20#, 108*4.5mm) was 4,287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton compared to the end of August, representing a 1.33% decline. Despite September being a traditional peak season, prices trended volatile downwards, influenced by a combination of downstream project delays and weather conditions.
Seamless Pipe Mill Theoretical Profits Decreased in September: As of September 30, taking 20# hot-rolled, Ф108*4.5mm seamless pipe as an example, the average profit for sample seamless pipe mills in Shandong was -60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the end of August. With the decline in steel prices and low stocking enthusiasm from traders, pipe mill order intake was average in September. Consequently, against the backdrop of increased output, the digestion of in-plant inventory slowed. Mill quotes generally showed stability with a downward bias, and the theoretical profit for pipe mills trended downwards in September.
Pipe Billet Price Decline: The price of Shandong pipe billet was 3,330 yuan/ton on September 30, a month-on-month decrease of 60 yuan/ton, or 1.77%. Pipe billet supply was relatively ample in September. Due to average mill shipment performance and reduced profits, pipe mills showed low enthusiasm for purchasing billets near the National Day holiday. Pipe billet transaction prices saw a significant drop before the holiday, with the overall trend in September being an initial rally followed by a decline.
Seamless Pipe Supply Saw a Slight Increase in September: September is a traditional peak season, and coinciding with the end of maintenance at some enterprises, supply showed a volatile small upward trend. According to Mysteel's survey (32 production enterprises, 110 production lines), weekly output was 385,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2,900 tons. Capacity utilization rate was 77.35%, a month-on-month increase of 0.58%. The operating rate was 78.22%, a month-on-month increase of 4.95%. With prices falling and order performance failing to meet expectations against the backdrop of increased supply, mill inventory showed a slight increase, leading to increased pressure on mills to ship goods approaching October.
Seamless Pipe Market Transactions Increased Month-on-Month in September: According to transaction volume data from Mysteel's seamless pipe sample trading companies (123 sample enterprises), the average daily transaction volume was 15,531 tons in September, a month-on-month increase of 6.07% compared to August. As a traditional peak season, overall seamless pipe demand did recover in September, but the increase was relatively limited, and the decline in transactions before the holiday was noticeable. Overall performance fell short of expectations.
Seamless Pipe Exports Rallied Significantly, Imports Dropped in August: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative seamless pipe exports reached 3.9581 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.60%. In August, China exported 563,400 tons of seamless pipe, a month-on-month increase of 21.84% and a year-on-year increase of 34.66%.
Imports: From January to August, China's cumulative seamless pipe imports were 62,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.87%. In August 2025, China imported 8,700 tons of seamless pipe, a month-on-month decrease of 22.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.51%.
Average Import and Export Prices Showed a Decline in August: Influenced by the overall decline in domestic steel prices, the average export price of seamless pipe showed a slight decrease in August. The average export price was 8,265.08 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 8.45% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.10%. The average import price was 54,923.42 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3.81% and a year-on-year decrease of 33.11%. The cumulative average export price from January to August was 11,624.77 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 4.10%. The cumulative average import price was 79,934.65 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 14.46%.
Summary of September Performance: August's seamless pipe market performance was largely characterized by: 1. A slight decrease in both price and profit; 2. A certain degree of increase in supply and inventory; 3. Demand recovery that fell short of expectations, but exports maintained significant growth.
Outlook for October:
Macro Factors: Post-holiday news concerning "anti-involution" and the "national unified large market" is expected to continue releasing positive signals. October is a traditional peak season, and supportive policies may be relatively numerous. Macro factors are one of the main favorable elements for the October market.
Supply Factors: According to Mysteel's survey, supply growth will be limited in October due to scheduled maintenance at some enterprises, and output is expected to maintain its current level. While factory inventory pressure has increased, it remains overall controllable.
Demand Factors: Entering October, demand experienced a short-term stagnation due to the holiday, but it is expected to recover gradually after the holiday. Demand in "Silver October" remains promising.
Conclusion: In summary, with the continuous release of macro-level positive news and the gradual improvement in demand, seamless pipe prices in October may follow a trend of dipping first, then rising.
