en 
Call
+8613166245535
The first full week of March 2026 has witnessed a transition in the Chinese steel sector, characterized by the "first signs of spring" for the seamless pipe market. Following a period of holiday-induced stagnation, the market is currently navigating a phase of cautious recovery. This week, black series futures demonstrated a resilient pattern, initially dipping before rebounding strongly, which has bolstered market confidence across major industrial hubs.
From a pricing standpoint, the national average for the standard 108 by 4.5mm seamless pipe reached 4,219 yuan per ton as of March 6. This represents a modest weekly uptick of 2 yuan per ton. While the increase is subtle, it signals a shift from the flat pricing seen in late February to a more proactive stance as the "Golden March" peak season begins.
Raw material costs remain a critical pillar of support for the current price structure. In the Southern markets, pipe billet prices have trended steadily toward strengthening, while the Northern markets, particularly Shandong, have held their ground. Notably, Jiangsu billets saw a 10 yuan per ton increase, which has widened the North-South price gap to 260 yuan per ton.
Pipe mill adjustments have been relatively conservative but targeted. A survey of 30 sample mills reveals that while the majority maintained stable ex-factory quotes, select manufacturers implemented price hikes ranging from 20 to 100 yuan per ton. This divergence suggests that mills with higher order backlogs or specialized product portfolios are feeling confident enough to test the market’s upside potential.
The macro-economic landscape has provided a significant psychological boost. The 2026 Government Work Report set an economic growth target of 4.5 percent to 5 percent, alongside a commitment to creating over 12 million new urban jobs. These targets provide a clear roadmap for industrial and infrastructure recovery, which is the primary driver for seamless pipe consumption in sectors like energy and high-end manufacturing.
Profitability within the seamless pipe industry is currently experiencing a sharp geographic divergence. As raw material prices firm up, the ability of mills to maintain margins depends heavily on their regional logistics costs and the specific demand profiles of their local end-users.
In the Shandong region, tolling mills are operating under significant pressure. Current data indicates an average profit of negative 110 yuan per ton. While this represents a 20 yuan improvement on both a weekly and monthly basis, the regional industry is still fighting to return to the break-even line as billet costs continue to outpace the slow recovery of finished pipe prices.
Conversely, the Jiangsu region demonstrates a far more robust profit profile. Mills in this area reported an average profit of 110 yuan per ton, a notable weekly increase of 40 yuan and a monthly surge of 110 yuan. This disparity is largely attributed to the higher concentration of high-end manufacturing and infrastructure projects in the Yangtze River Delta, which can better absorb price adjustments.
East China regional performance remains cautious but stable. In major markets like Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hangzhou, prices for the 108 by 4.5mm specification have held at 4,230 yuan, 4,120 yuan, and 4,170 yuan per ton, respectively. Traders in these areas are reporting that while inquiries are increasing, terminal demand has not yet reached its full seasonal velocity.
Mill production rhythms in East China have accelerated as the post-holiday maintenance phase concludes. However, because terminal construction is only just beginning to ramp up, traders are prioritizing "active shipping" over aggressive price hikes to maintain liquidity. This has resulted in a balanced market where prices remain flat while the underlying volume begins to stir.
The defining feature of this week's report is the massive rebound in production output. As the "spring start-up" takes hold, mills that were previously offline for maintenance have returned to full capacity, leading to a significant shift in the supply-demand balance.
Weekly production output surged to 349,400 tons, a staggering increase of 55,800 tons compared to the previous week. This return to high-output mode is reflected in the capacity utilization rate, which jumped by 11.19 percent to reach 70.07 percent. The operating rate also saw a sharp climb of 16.83 percent, reaching 70.3 percent.
Social inventory levels have moved into a phase of passive accumulation. Across 123 surveyed trading houses, total social inventory reached 700,300 tons, an increase of 8,100 tons week-on-week. This build-up is largely the result of "Winter Storage" orders arriving at warehouses before the downstream construction sites have fully cleared their own pre-existing stocks.
Mill-side inventories are also trending upward, reaching 752,600 tons. This represents a weekly increase of 2,900 tons and a significant monthly increase of over 50,000 tons. The accumulation at the factory level is a signal that while production is back to normal, the logistics of moving that volume into the terminal market are still catching up with the seasonal demand release.
Raw material inventories at the factory level have increased to 320,600 tons. This suggests that mills are proactively stocking up on billets in anticipation of a sustained demand surge in late March and early April. This forward-looking procurement by mills acts as a secondary support for billet prices, creating a feedback loop of firm costs.
As we look toward the second week of March, the seamless pipe market is poised for a period of "stable to strengthening" performance. The industry is currently moving past the initial post-holiday confusion and into the more predictable rhythms of the peak spring season.
From a fundamental perspective, the market is entering a "dual recovery" phase. Production is already at high levels, and the focus now shifts entirely to the demand side. Following the Lantern Festival, an increasing number of construction projects and industrial facilities have returned to normal operating schedules, which should lead to a measurable drawdown of social inventory in the coming weeks.
Market sentiment is characterized by cautious optimism. Traders report that while current shipment volumes are not yet record-breaking, the overall trajectory is significantly better than at the same time last year. The firm cost floor established by raw materials ensures that there is very little incentive for merchants to lower prices, even in the face of rising inventory.
Macro-economic catalysts remain a major tailwind. With the 2026 Government Work Report reinforcing stability and growth, and the possibility of Northern production limits providing additional support for raw material prices, the overall environment is favorable for finished product pricing.
In summary, we expect national seamless pipe prices to trend toward a "stable with an upward bias" trajectory next week. While localized inventory pressure may limit the speed of any rally, the combination of strong cost support, a recovering demand profile, and positive macro-economic signaling suggests that the market is ready for a gradual price appreciation.
