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Amid escalating trade friction and tariff wars, China’s steel market has seen prices fall for three consecutive weeks, with the general steel price index dropping 2.94% in April—contrary to the traditional “Silver April” trend. As the May holiday and key policy meetings approach, will pre-holiday restocking and macro optimism spark a rebound? We analyze raw material costs, demand, restocking sentiment, and macro risks.
Blast Furnace Utilization: Weekly molten iron output reached 2.4012 million tons (vs. 2.228 million tons YoY).
Inventories:
Port Stocks: 145.5 million tons (-45.2 million tons YoY).
Mill Stocks: 90.529 million tons (-23.29 million tons YoY).
Outlook: Pre-holiday restocking may briefly support prices, though upside remains limited.
Domestic Supply: High production persists, with inventories rising.
Price Pressures: Mills resist price hikes amid squeezed margins, intensifying negotiations.
Risks: Low mill inventories (5–7 days) may drive restocking, but weak futures liquidity and high delivery costs cap gains.
Rebar: Output dipped for two weeks; inventories fell for four weeks.
Hot Rolled Coil: Output rose slightly, but inventories declined for four weeks.
Demand: Despite muted pre-holiday restocking so far, market hopes linger for late-April demand spikes.
Global Tariffs: U.S. delays tariffs on some nations for 90 days, easing macro fears.
Domestic Policy: Expectations grow for stimulus measures at upcoming meetings to boost consumption.
Market Mood: Sentiment cautiously improves ahead of holidays, though sustainability concerns linger.
Raw Material Demand Peaks: Blast furnace output likely peaks, pressuring coking coal, coke, and iron ore.
Export Headwinds: Vietnam and Korea’s anti-dumping duties (20% of China’s exports) may hit Q2 shipments.
Macro Uncertainty: Post-meeting policy gaps and unresolved tariff wars threaten renewed volatility.
Conclusion: While pre-holiday rebounds are possible, post-holiday risks—weak exports, falling raw material demand, and policy voids—warrant caution. Traders should lock in gains, monitor risks, and stay agile.
