China's Seamless Steel Pipe Exports Top 6 Million Tons: 2026 Outlook and Strategic Shifts

Overview:In 2025, China's seamless steel pipe industry achieved a historic milestone, with export volumes reaching 6.28 million tons, a 9.79% year-on-year increase. Exports now account for nearly 20% of total domestic production, making the international market a critical pillar of the industry's demand structure. Despite global economic fluctuations and rising trade barriers, the sector maintained robust competitiveness. However, as 2026 begins, new regulatory frameworks and shifting international demand are poised to reshape the export landscape.

1. 2025 Export Performance: Volume Growth Amid Price Pressure

• Price-Volume DivergenceThe year 2025 was characterized by "volume up, price down." Monthly exports peaked in December at 672,600 tons, following a steady climb that began in August. Conversely, average export prices faced sustained downward pressure, falling from a high of $1,272/ton in January to a low of $1,100/ton by October. This trend underscores a highly competitive global market where volume was often maintained at the expense of profit margins.

• Geographic ShiftsThe Middle East and Southeast Asia remain the primary anchors for Chinese exports. The top 10 destinations in 2025 included the UAE, Kuwait, India, Indonesia, Oman, Thailand, Turkey, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Notably, the UAE accounted for 10.83% of total exports. This focus on non-Western markets has effectively insulated the industry from direct U.S. tariff hikes, though Turkish demand saw a significant cooling during the year.

2. Key Drivers for 2026: Licensing and Trade Barriers

• New Export Licensing System (Implemented Jan 1, 2026)As of January 1, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce has officially reinstated export licensing for 300 steel products, including seamless pipes.

• Objective: The policy aims to standardize trade and ensure product quality by requiring contracts and quality certificates for license approval.

• Impact: While it does not set a hard volume cap, the administrative transition caused a "rush to export" in late 2025 and is expected to slow the export pace in Q1 2026 as enterprises adapt to new compliance costs (estimated at 50–100 RMB/order).

• Global Anti-Dumping ChallengesThe year 2025 saw a wave of trade remedy measures from the EU, the Eurasian Economic Union, and Latin American countries. These include:

• Eurasian Economic Union: Anti-dumping duties of 14.62% to 17.28% on various pipe products have been extended into late 2026 pending re-investigation.

• European Union: New provisional duties on high-pressure seamless cylinders and ongoing reviews are increasing entry costs for premium segments.

3. 2026 Strategic Forecast

• Consolidation and ComplianceThe market is entering a "bottoming-out" phase for prices. Domestic seamless pipe prices are expected to follow a "lower-then-higher" pattern throughout 2026. While China's price advantage remains clear, the added complexity of licensing and anti-dumping measures will likely pull the total annual export volume down slightly to an estimated 5.6–5.8 million tons.

• Market PurificationThe 2026 licensing system will act as a filter, eliminating low-quality suppliers that rely on disorderly price competition. This transition toward "quality-driven" exports is expected to help repair industry margins and stabilize long-term trade relations with major partners in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.