en 
Call
+8613166245535
This week, domestic seamless pipe prices continued their downward trend, with the average price falling by 7 yuan/ton week-on-week. Although raw material prices remained stable to strong, providing obvious support on the cost side in the short term, finished product prices did not strengthen in tandem, reflecting insufficient market confidence at the current stage. On the macro level, from January to October, the total operating income of state-owned and state-holding enterprises nationwide increased by 0.9% year-on-year, while total profit decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, indicating that corporate profitability still faces pressure. Additionally, Japan plans to increase the issuance of two-year bonds by 300 billion yen in fiscal year 2025 and raise the overall government bond issuance scale by 6.3 trillion yen, which may have a certain impact on global liquidity. In the market, the characteristics of the off-peak season on the demand side are significant. Transaction volumes in the Northern region have contracted noticeably, and traders are mostly focused on digesting existing inventory. Order intake at mainstream pipe mills is generally average. Comprehensive analysis suggests that under the combined effect of cost support and weak demand, seamless pipe prices are expected to continue a stable-to-weak trend in the short term.
Price Dynamics：According to Mysteel data, as of November 28, the average price of 108*4.5mm seamless pipes in 28 major cities nationwide was 4,231 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 7 yuan/ton. Some markets engaged in covert price reductions to facilitate shipments, and the decline in the average price of seamless pipes widened compared to the previous week.
Raw Material Situation：This week, Shandong pipe billet prices remained temporarily stable, while Jiangsu pipe billet prices were raised by 20 yuan/ton week-on-week. Influenced by declining inventory at Jiangsu special steel mills, recent prices for Jiangsu pipe billets have been relatively strong, widening the price spread between the North and South.
Mill Price Adjustments：According to a Mysteel survey of 34 sample seamless pipe mills, some mainstream seamless pipe mills lowered their ex-factory prices this week, with adjustments ranging from 30 to 100 yuan/ton.
Profit PerformanceProfit performance for tolling seamless pipe mills diverged this week. The profit for Shandong tolling mills was -80 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the profit for Jiangsu tolling mills was 220 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. Under the joint squeeze of costs and prices, it is expected that mill profits will remain within a narrow range of fluctuation in the short term.
East China Regional Analysis：Influenced by the downward price policy adjustments of some Shandong pipe mills, seamless pipe prices in the East China market generally trended lower. Mainstream specification quotes in Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hangzhou were 4,200 yuan/ton, 4,120 yuan/ton, and 4,140 yuan/ton, respectively. This week, although pipe mills increased production, inventory declined, and East China market inventory also saw a small decrease. However, traders still found shipments difficult and were forced to cut prices to promote transactions. It is expected that East China seamless pipe prices will continue to run weakly next week.
Inventory Outlook：According to the latest Mysteel survey of 123 seamless pipe merchants nationwide, sample enterprise social inventory was 678,400 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,500 tons. As deep winter approaches, the characteristics of the off-peak demand season are becoming more pronounced. Merchants in the Northern region are mostly focusing on active destocking, with a generally low willingness to replenish stock. With traders maintaining a rhythm of active shipments, it is expected that market inventory will continue to decline slightly next week. According to the Mysteel survey of 33 seamless pipe production enterprises nationwide, in-plant inventory this week was 757,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22,300 tons; raw material inventory was 314,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6,200 tons. Recently, against the backdrop of continuously shrinking mill profits and weakening trader ordering willingness, order pressure on pipe mills has increased, forcing some enterprises to arrange maintenance, thereby providing some relief to supply-side pressure.
Production Outlook：In terms of output, the production of sample pipe mills this week was 386,400 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 77.49%, down 0.5% week-on-week; the operating rate was 78.22%, up 4.95% week-on-week and up 6.93% month-on-week. Affected by maintenance at some steel mills, output contracted slightly this week. Considering that multiple pipe mills will still be in the maintenance phase in December, it is expected that there is still room for subsequent output to decline.
Market Prediction：Recently, the ferrous sector has generally presented a pattern of weak supply and demand. Although the inventory of the five major steel varieties continues to decrease, apparent consumption has diverged, and demand for construction materials continues to be under pressure due to seasonal factors. In this context, the seamless pipe market faces a similar situation of insufficient fundamental support. On the supply side, influenced by profit contraction and order pressure, some pipe mills continue to implement maintenance plans, causing both capacity utilization and output to fall slightly, easing supply pressure. On the demand side, many parts of the country have entered deep winter, terminal construction progress has slowed, downstream procurement is mostly based on rigid demand, and market transactions are generally light. On the inventory side, although social inventory and in-plant inventory continue their downward trend, the speed of destocking is constrained by weak demand, and overall levels remain relatively high.
In summary, under the combined effect of current cost support and weak demand, the downward space for seamless pipe prices is limited, but upward movement is equally obstructed. It is expected that next week, national seamless pipe prices will continue to be mainly stable. Influenced by transaction pressure, there remains a possibility of small covert price drops in some markets, and domestic seamless pipe prices may overall present a trend of volatile weakness.
