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This week, domestic seamless pipe prices weakened slightly, with the average price falling by 5 yuan/ton week-on-week. On the macro level, China's current account surplus reached 1,416.5 billion yuan in Q3 2025, and the NDRC is researching regulations for a unified national market. In the market, the futures market trended downward, while raw material prices rose slightly, leading to diverging trends across steel varieties. Pipe mill profits remain heavily squeezed by costs. Under the influence of the seasonal off-peak period, market demand has contracted significantly, and mill supply has decreased simultaneously. Given this dual contraction, seamless pipe prices are expected to undergo stable-to-weak adjustments next week.
【Price Dynamics】
Seamless Pipe Prices: According to Mysteel data, as of January 4, the average price of 108*4.5mm seamless pipes in 28 major cities nationwide was 4,214 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 5 yuan/ton.
Raw Material Situation: Prices rose across the board. Shandong pipe billet prices increased by 10 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu pipe billet prices rose by 40 yuan/ton, slightly widening the price gap between North and South.
Mill Price Adjustments: A survey of 34 sample mills shows that some mainstream ex-factory prices fell by 30-50 yuan/ton.
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【Profit Performance】Profits for re-rolling mills saw a slight increase but remained low:
Shandong Tolling Mills: Profit was -100 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 20 yuan/ton.
Jiangsu Tolling Mills: Profit was 130 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 30 yuan/ton.
Summary: Despite the slight gain, profits are still squeezed by high costs and weak downstream demand, forcing merchants to prioritize destocking.
East China Regional Analysis:Raw material prices moved upward while market prices weakened. Mainstream mill quotes remained stable, though a few dropped by 30-50 yuan/ton. In East China, seamless pipe prices were stable-to-weak, with some markets dipping by 20 yuan/ton. Nationally, output continued to fall, and in-plant inventory decreased by 31,000 tons. Due to the off-season, transactions are sluggish, and traders are only replenishing stock based on immediate needs. Sentiment for "Winter Storage" remains weak as the year-end approaches. East China prices are expected to consolidate weakly next week.
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【Inventory Outlook】
Social Inventory: According to the survey of 123 merchants, social inventory was 660,900 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,700 tons. As Northern demand fades, traders are actively shipping to reduce stock. However, as long-term contract arrivals begin in January while terminal demand shrinks, the market may soon enter an accumulation (stockpiling) cycle.
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Mill Inventory: According to the survey of 33 production enterprises, in-plant inventory was 669,400 tons, a significant week-on-week drop of 31,000 tons. Raw material inventory rose slightly by 4,200 tons. Environmental controls and maintenance in the North have led to a rapid decline in output, easing pressure on mill warehouses.
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【Production Outlook】
Output: Weekly production was 333,300 tons, a decrease of 19,600 tons week-on-week.
Capacity Utilization: The rate fell to 66.84% (down 3.93%).
Operating Rate: The rate dropped to 70.3% (down 6.93%). Output is expected to compress further in January as maintenance becomes more centralized.
【Market Prediction】Although rising pipe billet prices provide a cost floor and supply is contracting due to mill maintenance, the core conflict remains the collapse of terminal demand during the deep winter off-season.
Upstream: Supply is tightening, but cost transmission is blocked by poor market sentiment.
Downstream: Market transactions are weak, especially in the North. Traders are focused on capital recovery and have little interest in winter storage.
Conclusion: Given the "double weakness" in supply and demand, national seamless pipe prices are expected to remain stable overall, with potential covert discounts in certain regions to move volume. The general trend for next week is stable-to-weak.
