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H1 2025 saw significant price volatility amid complex market conditions
Production capacity stable but output fluctuated due to demand/profit pressures
Exports grew while imports declined, inventories showed regional gaps
Traditional demand sluggish with limited new growth drivers
Early 2025 decline → Post-holiday rebound → April-May renewed drop
Current price: 4,246 RMB/ton (down 200+ RMB from January)
Billet prices followed weak trend, causing profit divergence
Blast/electric mills: 238 RMB/ton profit
Billet-rolling mills: 50 RMB/ton loss
15.6M ton output (+4% YoY), new production lines activated
Small mills reduced production, market consolidation accelerated
Exports surged 13.65% to 2.46M tons (Middle East/SE Asia demand)
Domestic consumption grew 2.8% to 12.65M tons • Imports fell 22.29% as domestic quality improved
July-August traditional off-season to maintain weak demand
Fragile supply-demand balance with low social inventories
Raw materials show only minor rebound potential
International uncertainty clouds export prospects
Prices projected to remain weak through Q3
