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In March, the seamless pipe market witnessed a strategic rebound characterized by recovering mill profits and a "double growth" pattern in both supply and demand. As we move into April, the convergence of firm raw material costs and the further release of downstream demand suggests that market fundamentals are entering a phase of restoration. For international buyers, the current "vibrating upward" price trend indicates that the window for low-cost procurement is narrowing. Understanding these shifts in supply and inventory is essential for securing stable lead times and managing procurement budgets effectively.
Steady Price Appreciation: By the end of March, the average domestic price for seamless pipes (20#, 108*4.5mm) reached 4268 RMB/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1.21%. While this remains slightly lower than last year's levels, the trend clearly shows a return to mean value driven by rising costs.
Mill Profit Restoration: Profitability for manufacturers has significantly improved. In Shandong, theoretical profits for sample enterprises rose by 80 RMB/ton month-on-month. This recovery is largely supported by the surge in tube blank prices, with hot-rolled blanks in Jiangsu reaching 3540 RMB/ton.
Customer Benefit: Improved profit margins mean that major Chinese mills are less likely to slash prices further, and are more likely to prioritize production quality and service stability over desperate volume-seeking.
Production Rebound: Following the holiday period and environmental restrictions, production surged in March. Weekly output reached 423,500 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.93%—a significant monthly increase of 26.05%.
Inventory Trends: Factory inventories began a downward trajectory toward the end of the month, settling at 772,400 tons. This shift from "accumulation" to "depletion" proves that downstream consumption is effectively absorbing the high production volume.
Customer Benefit: While supply is currently high, planned maintenance in April for several major mills may lead to a temporary dip in output. Global purchasers should monitor their suppliers' maintenance schedules to avoid potential delays in shipping.
Domestic Consumption: Daily trading volumes among 123 sample enterprises increased by 5.04% year-on-year. Increased liquidity in downstream infrastructure projects is providing a resilient floor for demand.
Robust Export Performance: Despite policy shifts, China’s seamless pipe exports surged in early 2026. Cumulative exports for January and February hit 993,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.71%.
Customer Benefit: The double-digit growth in exports highlights the continued global competitiveness of Chinese steel. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising ocean freight costs may add pressure to landed prices in the short term.
Looking ahead to April, the market is poised for a volatile but strong performance.
Supply: Anticipated mill maintenance will likely cause production to retreat from its recent peaks.
Demand: Terminal demand is recovering steadily as small and medium-sized infrastructure projects enter the intensive construction phase.
Costs: Rising crude oil prices and logistics expenses are providing firm support for raw material costs. In summary, with supply tightening and demand rising, the fundamental balance is repairing itself. We recommend that international partners finalize their Q2 procurement plans early to mitigate the risks of rising logistics costs and the upward momentum of steel prices.
