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This week, the Chinese seamless steel pipe market faced downward pressure due to a softening cost structure and subdued seasonal demand. For international buyers, the current market dynamics—characterized by production cuts at the mill level but persistent inventory pressure—suggest a period of cautious procurement. Monitoring these trends is essential for optimizing your upcoming import strategy.
Price Trends and Cost Dynamics According to Mysteel’s latest data, as of June 26, the national average price for 108*4.5mm seamless pipes settled at 4,318 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 3 RMB/ton. The upstream raw material market also saw a cooling trend, with pipe billet prices in Shandong and Jiangsu falling by 30 RMB/ton. Consequently, mainstream seamless pipe mills adjusted their factory-gate prices downward by 20–30 RMB/ton.
Profitability and Regional Analysis Profit margins for re-rolling seamless pipe mills showed a minor recovery, with Shandong-based mills achieving 160 RMB/ton (an increase of 30 RMB/ton) and Jiangsu mills maintaining stable profits at 100 RMB/ton. In East China, while market prices were generally stable, certain areas like Nanjing saw a 30 RMB/ton decline. Despite four consecutive weeks of production cuts, factory-side inventories remain high, indicating that supply-side adjustments have yet to fully alleviate the pressure on market prices.
Inventory and Production Status National social inventory rose to 716,000 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons, as traders maintain a "buy-as-needed" approach. Factory inventories remained high at 788,200 tons. Production capacity utilization dropped to 77.36%, down 1.64%, reflecting a strategic slowdown in manufacturing.
Market Forecast for International Buyers The domestic market is currently navigating the traditional June off-season and the rainy "plum rain" season, which has constrained construction activity. Given the combination of weak demand, high inventory levels, and declining raw material costs, the market is expected to remain weak and volatile. For our global partners, this indicates that while short-term procurement costs may ease slightly, maintaining a cautious, data-driven approach to restocking remains the best strategy.
With both supply and demand currently subdued, the seamless pipe market is likely to remain in a weak, fluctuating state in the coming week. We advise our clients to keep a close eye on these weekly shifts to leverage potential price benefits while maintaining operational flexibility.
