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Overview As 2025 approaches its midpoint, Central China's seamless pipe market has seen persistent price declines amid broader steel sector weakness. Construction delays and reduced downstream operating rates have intensified trader pressure, while mill profits contracted YoY. With seasonal headwinds intensifying, Q3 is poised for continued weakness.
Price Performance
June 23 average: 4,343.3 yuan/ton
WoW: ↓26 yuan/ton | MoM: ↓53 yuan/ton | YoY: ↓423 yuan/ton Sector Behavior
Mills: Inventory control via price cuts
Traders: "Fast-in-fast-out" strategy dominates amid capital constraints
Supply Pressures
Weekly output: 374,800 tons (+5,200 tons WoW)
Capacity utilization: 81.44% (+1.13% WoW)
Mill inventories: 714,300 tons (+16,500 tons WoW) Key issue: Production growth outpaces demand
Demand Weakness
Transactions: ↓9.64% WoW (seasonal slump)
Machinery output: 85,039 excavators Jan-May (+11.85% YoY)
Property drag: Investment ↓10.7% Jan-May
Critical Factors
Supply: High utilization rates (80%+) likely continue
Demand: Rainy season + traditional off-season = further contraction
Policy: Infrastructure stimulus may lag until Q4
Price Forecast
Central China prices expected to trade lower than H1 averages
Temporary rebounds possible on restocking/policy rumors
Sustainable recovery unlikely before October
